The Bitcoin Review was the previous incarnation of my newsletter.
2021.13 - Flat
Blackrock Gunning For BTB? || Goodbye Gold, Hello Bitcoin || Bitcoin on Balance Sheets || Paypal Delivers || Micro Futures || Miners Hoarding || Wrestling Bitcoin || Big G Energy || Bitcoin, So Hot || IPO Good to Go || Brain Drain || Tracking YOU || ArcheWho? || Last Call? || Volatility GOOD
TLDR:
I hope you’re comfortable with your stack at this point. You’ve had plenty of time to accumulate below $60k and you may even get a chance at a dip. This is the quiet before the storm, once we take out $60k, look out above.
THE STANCE
My personal opinion on where the ball might be heading.
Some Bitcoiners are joking we’ll be stuck at $58k forever.
I’ll be the first to admit I’m surprised we haven’t gone higher yet given the amount and magnitude of bullish news I’ve seen recently, particularly regarding adoption
But price discovery is a process and one of its key ingredients is time. The more time Bitcoin spends around a particular price level, the stronger the “floor” supporting the price becomes:
Each candle in the chart represents a 4-hour period
A quick look at the chart below shows a couple of things:
Bitcoin has spent over 50 days above $40k
A full 28 of those days have been above $50k, 24 of them above $55k
The chart suggests that we should have a break (up or down) by or around the 12th.
Now, I’ll be the first to admit I’m not a “chart guy”, but I’ve learned not to ignore them.
Looking at the Monthly chart below, we see that Bitcoin has never printed 7 monthly green candles in a row. Will this time be different?
Each candle in the chart represents 1 Month — click to expand.
LONG BITCOIN
Recent news that keeps me bullish on Bitcoin —"long / bullish" means you have the expectation something will rise in value.
Blackrock GUNNING FOR BTB?
My favorite bit of news this week had to do with BlackRock’s Bitcoin allocation. The world’s largest asset manager had already announced they would be “dabbing in Bitcoin” weeks ago.
A recent SEC filing revealed their initial allocation consisted of $6.15M in Bitcoin futures.
While $6.15M is a minuscule amount for them, it begs the question of whether the amount was intentional —the number 6.15 was imbued with meaning in 2020 when American Hodl turned it into a popular meme:
Many eyes are on how BlackRock will operate in the Bitcoin space, whether this was sheer coincidence or masterful trolling, they seem to be off to a good start.
Goodbye Gold, Hello Bitcoin
The team at MorningBrew —a daily newsletter offering “top business news from Wall Street to Silicon Valley”—decided to freshen up their Markets section by adding Bitcoin and taking out Oil and Gold.
“We think our Markets section will be more relevant with bitcoin in it.”
This adds even more strength to the growing narrative of Bitcoin displacing Gold in portfolios:
Bitcoin on Balance Sheets
Square’s support of Bitcoin extends well beyond allowing people to buy it on CashApp.
In addition to putting 5% of their cash reserves in Bitcoin and abolishing transaction fees for Bitcoin on CashApp, they have been supporting developers through a series of grants and recently announced a $10M initiative to fund clean-energy mining.
So this latest announcement by their CFO was not surprising, but it is still timely and welcome:
The normalization of corporations allocating to Bitcoin in their balance sheets will be a huge driver for growth in the coming years. The realization that early adopters will benefit disproportionately could lead to wild corporate-grade FOMO later in the year. Buckle up.
Paypal Delivers
A few months ago, when it first rolled out support for crypto, PayPal announced it would eventually allow users to pay for their purchases from their crypto balances. They kept to their word and launched the functionality last week:
Users will not actually be paying with crypto —PayPal will automatically convert from crypto to fiat— but I see it as a positive step for Bitcoin in the payment space.
Micro Futures
CME’s upcoming Micro Bitcoin Futures product is significant because it will allow positions 1/50th the size of their current product.
This should significantly increase the number of retail users that can participate in these instruments.
Miners Hoarding
A new market dynamic seems to be gaining strength: some miners are not selling their Bitcoin.
I first heard of this trend from Michael Saylor in this excellent conversation with Saifedean Ammous.
Wrestling Bitcoin
It’s very encouraging to see traditional finance institutions, especially “venerable” ones like Bank of NY Mellon document their process for trying to make sense of how to value Bitcoin.
And it’s fun to see some of their wildly bullish price predictions:
BNY Mellon did not put forth a price projection as such, but rather they describe some of the different frameworks they are using to make sense of Bitcoin’s price.
Big G Energy
There are plenty of “Big Names” when it comes to traditional finance, but few are as big and storied as Goldman Sachs.
Their recent announcement —they will be offering access to Bitcoin and other digital assets to their wealthiest clients— lost some of it thunder to a Bitcoin promo-stunt from (checks notes) the Teletubbies.
Bitcoin, so hot
Like them or not, celebrities are here to stay. It’s always tricky when a celebrity endorses Bitcoin because more often than not they will immediately start shilling some shitcoin. So, I’ll save my applause for the end, but just for informational purposes, here are some recent “celebrity endorsements” for Bitcoin:
IPO Good to Go
It seems all systems are go for Coinbase to go public.
Coinbase is not exactly the most beloved company in the space, but their success is hard to argue with. For good or bad, their IPO will cement their place as the household-name in crypto.
CRYPTO WARS
crypto- | ˈˌkrɪpˌtoʊ | concealed; secret.
The monopoly over fiat money will not be given up without a fight.
Brain Drain
This is not discussed often in the news, but institutions in traditional finance are not only feeling pressure to jump into Bitcoin from customers, but also internally. Their best and brightest are leaving:
Tracking YOU
Make no mistake about it, your Bitcoin transactions are being tracked.
Learning how to acquire and use Bitcoin more privately should be high on your list of things to research.
SHORT FIAT
Recent news that makes me bearish on the legacy financial system —"short / bearish" means betting it will go down in value.
ArcheWho?
I’d never heard of Archegos before (had you?), according to Bloomberg it is “a family investment office specializing in public equities primarily in the United States, China, Japan and Korea.”
That doesn’t sound like a market-shaking titan to me, but apparently they kind of became one when some of their leveraged plays went bad.
“Archegos was able to borrow so much that its failure created shockwaves large enough to ripple across Wall Street — and impact everyday Americans' retirement accounts.”
This is a perfect example of the rampant systemic risk that most people are —willingly or not— ignoring in traditional markets; this unknown firm is likely to inflict losses on giants like JPMorgan, Credit Suisse and Nomura to the tune of $10 Billion or more.
How many Archegos do you need to trigger a full meltdown? My guess is, not that many.
The traditional financial system is brittle, choose wisely.
PRICE DISCOVERY
This is the section where I talk about price with an updated weekly price chart. If this is your first time here, there’s a “how to interpret” guide below the chart.
Last Call?
It would seem the days of sub-$60k Bitcoin are coming to an end.
We may get some last minute fire-sales before popping up, so if you like fishing for dips this would be a good time to cast your nets. The chart suggests that somewhere around $52,500 would be a reasonable bet.
If the price “falls off the board” we could theoretically fall all the way to $32,700 —I don’t see it happening, but I don’t call the shots here.
Each Candle in the chart represents 1 Week — click to expand.
Volatility GOOD
It’s common to be concerned about Bitcoin’s volatility at first, but remember: volatility means the market is allowing the price discovery process to function. No “circuit-breakers”, no “plunge protection team”, no bailouts. A lack of volatility often means something is horribly wrong.
How to interpret the Bitcoin Surfing chart:
Think of Bitcoin's price-action as a kite-surfer:
Bitcoin uses its board to stay above water and wants to catch some air.
When it catches air, it tends to keep rising but if it rises too fast (it's feet no longer touch the board) it can stumble.
If it falls off the board, it tends to keep falling until it regains its footing (may need to touch water or sand for that).
Water and sand arrest the fall and help it push itself back up.
If it goes up so much that it gets close to (or into) the Stratosphere, it will probably crash down all the way into the sand and may need to tap the bedrock level before pushing up again.
QUESTIONS?
What’s the ONE question about Bitcoin you’d like answered?
NEED to understand Bitcoin?
My live, 5-conversations course may be for you.
DON’T TRUST, VERIFY
Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research)
I am not a financial, tax or legal advisor. All of my content is intended for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice
2021.12 - Patience
Teslas for Bitcoin || US Bitcoin ETF || Cryptucky || Soros. Hodler? || Flipping Brandt || Billionaire FOMO || Block-Clocked || FTX Arena || F the FATF || The Steel Bubble || Falling Turkey ||
TLDR:
Bitcoin favors the patient. The most difficult part of investing in Bitcoin is sitting on your hands and doing nothing. HODLing is a decision you make every single day —sometimes you’re fighting back fear, other times greed and surprisingly often boredom. The profits are in the waiting.
THE STANCE
My personal opinion on where the ball might be heading.
I get that markets are hot and people are anxious to find the next great trade that’s going to 1000x and make them rich with a $100 investment.
This is not that.
Bitcoin is the first time in human history where we see the base-layer of money being upgraded in real-time. It’s like switching your money to a new Operating System. The best part: it’s opt-in, Bitcoin is not being forced upon anyone.
The reason it’s still such a huge opportunity is because it’s still fairly complicated and not everyone understands it. Like someone said:
Bitcoin’s price is a lagging indicator of humanity’s understanding of money.
There is still a ways to go and it will not all be smooth sailing. But if you have any understanding of money and how broken the current system is, you know that Bitcoin is among the most hopeful news in a world gone crazy.
All you have to do is accumulate as much as you can, store it safely and wait. It sounds easy, it ain’t. After crossing the 1 Trillion mark Bitcoin has entered new territory, but that doesn’t mean the waters won’t get choppy.
Steel your nerves by educating yourself, build your conviction by understanding what problems Bitcoin solves and what enemies it’s up against. Make no mistake about it, buying Bitcoin is stepping into one of the most important battlegrounds of our time, casual tourists may not make it.
Your weapons are knowledge and patience. Master them both.
LONG BITCOIN
Recent news that keeps me bullish on Bitcoin —"long / bullish" means you have the expectation something will rise in value.
Trading Teslas for Bitcoin
Elon Musk made some waves this week with the announcement that you could now buy Teslas using Bitcoin.
The most bullish part of the announcement however, came in the second tweet:
Tesla is using only internal & open source software & operates Bitcoin nodes directly. Bitcoin paid to Tesla will be retained as Bitcoin, not converted to fiat currency. —Elon Musk
This is a clear signal that this was not a gimmicky move to attract Bitcoiners but a genuine interest in the asset. More companies will follow suit.
US Bitcoin ETF
The race for a US-based Bitcoin ETF keeps heating up. There were seven different groups waiting for authorization And while previous applicants were mostly smaller, newer firms, the new entrants are huge and have a lot of pull with regulators.
In this context NYDIG (which has already applied for a Bitcoin ETF) announced they will be lowering fees for their services.
What this all suggests is that several ETFs may be approved at once, lest the regulators be accused of king-making, and competition among them will likely be intense. Who will win? You.
Cryptucky
In a pleasant surprise —given the frequent and incorrect “crypto-mining is evil” rhetoric in the MSM— the state of Kentucky is actively seeking to put its abundant energy to good use by attracting crypto-miners:
The realization of the benefits of Bitcoin mining is only beginning, but it will make for a fascinating race with positive ramifications across several different industries and fields.
Soros. Hodler?
In a recent interview with Dawn Fitzpatrick, CIO of Soros Fund Management, expressed general “crypto” bullishness on well-founded arguments and chimed in on CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies).
The clip is well worth watching as Ms. Fitzpatrick has clearly done her homework —always refreshing to see— but what I found particularly tasty was her reaction to the question “Do you own Bitcoin?”
There is a real fear of debasement of fiat currencies
—Dawn Fizpatrick
Flipping Brandt
Peter Brandt started trading in 1975 and he has been following/trading Bitcoin since at least 2017. Needless to say, he’s seen a thing or two during his career.
I’ve (mostly) enjoyed following him for a long time. He’s usually very agnostic about what he trades. He looks at the chart, finds a pattern, makes a call —he usually doesn’t seem to care much about the underlying asset.
Recently he expressed dismay over the whole “Laser Eyes” incident (see the Destroyed edition of this newsletter), so I was extremely surprised to hear this from him:
The mark of intelligence is being able to change once mind when presented with new information, I salute Mr. Brandt and celebrate his change of heart.
I hope he gets laser eyes soon.
Billionaire FOMO
Two weeks ago we commented on Norways’ second richest man becoming a Bitcoiner and starting a new company called Seetee. It seems the news provoked a fellow Billionaire to reconsider his stance on Bitcoin, so much so that Spetalen invested in crypto-exchange MiraiEx.
I don’t think this is the last billionaire that will FOMO into Bitcoin as they see their peers making decisive moves into the asset.
CRYPTO WARS
crypto- | ˈˌkrɪpˌtoʊ | concealed; secret.
The monopoly over fiat money will not be given up without a fight.
Block-Clocked
Jack Dorsey testified before congress via remote call. On the background he had a blockclock mini, one of several lustworthy items from Coinkite, a popular Canadian maker of Bitcoin hardware products and accessories:
Jack’s Blockclock was displaying the current exchange rate for one USD in Satoshis or as someone described it “a real-time indicator of the dollar’s fall against Bitcoin”.
The display read “1952” (1 dollar = 1952 sats) and naturally, many were not sure what to make of it. Out of the confusion a new meme was birthed when Data breach hunter turned professional asshat tweeted this:
So far it was all in good fun. Several Bitcoiners (many of them politely) pointed out the reality of the situation to Chris, who then doubled, tripled and cuadrupled down with impressive ACKSHUALLY vigor, while proceeding to block all Bitcoiners and coming close to questioning the very nature of reality itself.
So thanks to Chris, “Moscow Time” joins “Quad 4”, “Boiling the Oceans”, “Open Minded” , “Tulips”, “Rat Poison” and other select nuggets in Bitcoin’s pantheon of eternal mockery. Have Fun Staying Poor Chris!
FTX Arena
The Miami Heat basketball team will now be playing in the FTX arena —the first time a crypto-exchange sponsors a professional team.
As Bitcoin shakes off some of its repetitional taint wider adoption becomes easier. Congratulations to FTX, I hope they don’t use their newfound power to shill shitcoins.
F the FATF
The Financial Action Task Force is one of those obscure organizations that has no official power but wields huge influence. Long story short, they don’t like the idea of not being able to surveil your every financial transaction.
This will be the battleground between financial sovereignty and Big Brother surveillance. Keep an eye on it and choose wisely. Here’s a good analysis on the new guidance.
SHORT FIAT
Recent news that makes me bearish on the legacy financial system —"short / bearish" means betting it will go down in value.
The Steel Bubble
There’s no inflation, but prices of steel, lumber, wire, food and many other basic things keep rising. Must be sorcery, perhaps printing more money would help.
Falling Turkey
As the world watches, the Turkish Lira keeps falling. If you think “that can’t happen here” you should be paying closer attention. Not surprisingly, Bitcoin’s popularity in the country is soaring.
The risk of the government introducing capital controls was also now “elevated”
PRICE DISCOVERY
This is the section where I talk about price with an updated weekly price chart. If this is your first time here, there’s a “how to interpret” guide below the chart.
Back on the board
Last week, with prices around $55k, I wrote that a good spot to buy the dip would be close to $51,100 —because that was where “the board” was and it was likely Bitcoin would “come down and land on the board” (the actual low for the week turned out to be $50,300).
What come next? Impossible to say, but I expect UP soon.
Levels to watch:
The Stratosphere (current price “ceiling”) starts around $91k
The Board (support) is just under $52k
The Water Level (strong support) has been rising and is at $32.5k
Each candle in the chart represents one week
How to interpret the Bitcoin Surfing chart:
Think of Bitcoin's price-action as a kite-surfer:
Bitcoin uses its board to stay above water and wants to catch some air.
When it catches air, it tends to keep rising but if it rises too fast (it's feet no longer touch the board) it can stumble.
If it falls off the board, it tends to keep falling until it regains its footing (may need to touch water or sand for that).
Water and sand arrest the fall and help it push itself back up.
If it goes up so much that it gets close to (or into) the Stratosphere, it will probably crash down all the way into the sand and may need to tap the bedrock level before pushing up again.
DON’T TRUST, VERIFY
Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research)
I am not a financial, tax or legal advisor. All of my content is intended for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice
2021.11 - Early
Morgan Stanley || Deeper into CashApp || Bitcoin ETFs || Based Brasil || The Charlie Lee || CBDCs || Eating Fiat’s Lunch || All Good Things… || Turkish Displeasures || Floating
TLDR:
Yes, it’s still early. Early in the story of what Bitcoin will become. Most companies and high-net-worth individuals still don’t own any, that won’t remain the case for long. You can still front-run them and for once in your life beat them to the prize. DO IT.
THE STANCE
My personal opinion on where the ball might be heading.
The whole “institutions are coming” argument regarding Bitcoin was a pipe dream in 2017. The next few years —through the cold winter of a brutal bear market— saw Bitcoiners hunkering down and building the necessary infrastructure to support this dream, in the faith that it would materialize.
Still the notion remained fanciful hope until —pretty much out of the blue— Microstrategy announced they were switching their treasury to a Bitcoin standard. In the beginning, it didn’t seem like huge news. But Michael Saylor began a blistering evangelism tour that began to turn heads, culminating with the “Bitcoin for Corporations” event in early February which was attended by over 6,000 companies.
Today “institutions are coming” is no longer an opinion:
By the way, the Nic Carter podcast episode on the Institutionalization of Bitcoin from which the above Robby Gutmann quote was taken is excellent and recommended.
This is not the time to be “waiting for a dip” —which may or may not come. You should consider that this IS the dip and it’s not going to last forever. In fact, it will may not last much longer.
By the way, if you are new, Crypto can be confusing so I’ll give you a simple strategy:
Buy some Bitcoin and make a plan to keep buying regularly with the intention of holding it for as long as possible (at least 4 years).
Learn how to use a wallet so you can take custody of your own Bitcoin and move your coins from the exchange to your wallet.
Start learning about what you’ve gotten yourself into.
Ignore shitcoins (non-Bitcoin crypto).
Every week I talk to newcomers. They want to know about DeFi and NFTs, Shitcoin X, Shitcoin Y…
Look, I get it. You probably feel like you missed the boat. Like you may never be able to buy a whole Bitcoin and look! you could buy thousands of this other coin which is faster and has cheaper transactions than Bitcoin!
This a natural way to think when you have no real understanding about what Bitcoin is, how it works and why it was designed that way.
Suffice it to say institutions, corporations and billionaires are focused almost exclusively on Bitcoin for good reason. Find out what those reasons are.
You haven’t missed the boat. Get in, now.
And if you want help, my contact info is below.
LONG BITCOIN
Recent news that keeps me bullish on Bitcoin —"long / bullish" means you have the expectation something will rise in value.
Morgan Stanley
The players in the legacy financial system are reluctantly embracing the obvious. Their customers want Bitcoin, either they offer them access or watch them take their money elsewhere.
They seem slightly reluctant though. Only clients with $2M or more ($5M if you are an investment firm) will be able to access the Bitcoin instruments, and then they will only permit them to allocate a maximum of 2.5% of their portfolio.
Deeper Into CashApp
CashApp now allows users to easily send Bitcoin to each other, it’s good to see traditional payment rails baking Bitcoin into their services.
Bitcoin ETFs
Anthony Scaramucci’s Skybridge joins the list of US companies with Bitcoin ETF products waiting for government approval:
Based Brasil
The first South American Bitcoin ETF just received approval in Brasil:
CRYPTO WARS
crypto- | ˈˌkrɪpˌtoʊ | concealed; secret.
The monopoly over fiat money will not be given up without a fight.
The Charlie Lee
Back in 2017, the creator of Litecoin pulled the rug from under his users so hard, that the rug-pull was unofficially re-christened in his name:
The Rug Pull aka
The Charlie Lee
Lee’s behavior was bad enough that it’s part the argument the CFTC used to fine Coinbase (Lee was an employee) $6.5M
The reality is that this fine is a slap on the wrist for Coinbase and probably paves the way for Coinbase’s upcoming IPO.
SHORT FIAT
Recent news that makes me bearish on the legacy financial system —"short / bearish" means betting it will go down in value.
CBDCs
The endgame for Central Banks is control, of the absolute kind.
Listen to the clip describing what they want to replace cash with:
The Central Bank will have absolute control on the rules and regulations that will determine the use on that “expression of Central Bank liability” and the technology to enforce that”
This does not sound like the money of a free people, but rather like the tokens prisoners can use at their cafeteria.
Even George Orwell’s vision fell short of anticipating such a granular tool of control where the government has crystal clarity about where you spend every dime and the ability to financially castrate you at the click of a bureaucrat’s button.
If this doesn’t motivate you get into Bitcoin, I don’t know what will.
Eating Fiat’s Lunch
Bitcoin has been accelerating in its process of overtaking world currencies. Expect this to continue.
All Good Things…
The US dollar has enjoyed the “Exorbitant Privilege” of being the world’s reserve currency for a long time. How much longer will this privilege last?
Given the way the US economy is being managed, it seems it will only last as long as no other serious contender appears.
Turkish Displeasures
Raising rates is difficult for government officials to do because of it’s high political cost. Consider Turkey:
The charade can’t last forever. Rates at or near Zero (or even negative) a simply a sign that leadership is unwilling to risk its political capital to attempt to fix the economy.
Having secured chairs for themselves long ago, they’ll keep the music going as long as possible, hoping the carnage doesn't start on their watch.
PRICE DISCOVERY
This is the section where I talk about price with an updated weekly price chart. If this is your first time here, there’s a “how to interpret” guide below the chart.
Floating
Bitcoin has been flirting with $60k this week. It spent the week “floating above the board”, past behavior suggests it will either come back down and “touch the board” or keep floating at about the same level causing the board to rise to meet it.
I wouldn’t have the nerves of steel to be fishing for dips here, but if that were my sport I’d set my nets slightly above $51,100 close to the board.
And remember between $31k and $89k, anything can happen.
Each candle in the chart represent 1 week
How to interpret the Bitcoin Surfing chart:
Think of Bitcoin's price-action as a kite-surfer:
Bitcoin uses its board to stay above water and wants to catch some air.
When it catches air, it tends to keep rising but if it rises too fast (it's feet no longer touch the board) it can stumble.
If it falls off the board, it tends to keep falling until it regains its footing (may need to touch water or sand for that).
Water and sand arrest the fall and help it push itself back up.
If it goes up so much that it gets close to (or into) the Stratosphere, it will probably crash down all the way into the sand and may need to tap the bedrock level before pushing up again.
SUBSCRIBE
DON’T TRUST, VERIFY
Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research)
I am not a financial, tax or legal advisor. All of my content is intended for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice
2021.10 - Twice
Bitcoin is different || Norway’s Seetee || NYDIG Killing It || India To Ban Bitcoin Again? || ETF Race Intensifies || Accelerating Stimulus
TLDR:
Bitcoin’s Market Cap has now surpassed the Trillion Dollar mark, twice. It isn’t a fluke. It isn’t a bubble. It’s not done. If you are not onboard yet it’s not too late but hesitating now could prove expensive.
NO-COINER CORNER
IF YOU ALREADY OWN SOME BTC SKIP THIS,
IF STILL HAVEN’T BOUGHT, READ THIS:
Bitcoin is probably different from any investment you’ve ever made. Even worse, it’s different in ways you don’t yet understand.
A good portion of what Bitcoin is lives, in the space of “things that you don’t know you don’t know”. It’s natural to find it confusing and/or intimidating.
It’s NOT OK to let that stop you from making the effort to understand it. Don’t let your fear come between you and the chance to be part of the biggest monetary phenomenon of your lifetime.
Many of those who’ve let the opportunity slip through their fingers have come to regret it:
It may seem that you’ve already missed the boat. You haven’t. If you are looking for a quick buck, look elsewhere. If you are looking for an investment for the next decade read on.
Ask the questions, put in the work to understand the answers you receive. Don’t get distracted. Shitcoins will try to lure you with flashy marketing and promises of quick gains. FOCUS.
Do you know what the oracle problem is? how to yield-farm? the difference between POS and POW mining? what “Turing-complete” means and why Bitcoin doesn’t have this “feature”?
If you answered NO to any/all the above then there are only two reasons to invest in shitcoins:
You have too much Bitcoin.
You enjoy gambling and don’t mind losing as long as a good time is had by all.
Unit Bias
Lately I’ve been getting a lot of “I bought shitcoin X because Bitcoin was too expensive".
It’s a mistake we are primed to make because of Unit Bias —we naturally want to accumulate a whole unit because it seems optimal to our brain. It’s a psychological thing similar to how an item sells ten times more at $2.99 than it does at $3
Think in Sats: One Bitcoin is made of 100,000,000 sats. A single dollar still buys you over 1,500 sats. You can still be a Sat millionaire for around US$600 but maybe not for long.
THE STANCE
My personal opinion on where the ball might be heading.
Not every asset can break the Trillion Market Cap barrier. Fewer still can do it twice in the space of one month with a 25% tumble in between.
You can think of price dips as Bitcoin kicking the tires before a race. Are we all good to go here? Do we have support at this price levels? A strong, firm floor to jump from?
Last week there was a persistent rumor that Oracle was going to announce a large Bitcoin purchase. They didn’t. Price didn’t seem to care, we still broke $60k
Front-run the Stimmy
Now with the stimulus checks in transit, my bet is that more than a few of those checks will ape into BTC. After all, if you’d put the original $1,200 stimulus check into BTC you’d now have over $11k. Hard to ignore those numbers.
LONG BITCOIN
Recent news that keeps me bullish on Bitcoin —"long / bullish" means you have the expectation something will rise in value.
Norway’s Seetee
Norway’s 180-year old Aker Group —one of the largest corporations in the country, run by one of the wealthiest men in the country— created a new Bitcoin-centric company Seetee which will use Bitcoin as a Treasury Reserve Asset (their initial buy was $50M), has already partnered with some of the biggest names in the space (like Blockstream) and will be looking for multiple opportunities, including mining
Seetee will establish mining operations that transfer st or intermittent electricity without stable demand locally—wind, solar, hydro power— to economic assets that can be used anywhere.
A letter to Aker shareholders penned by Chairman —and one of Norway’s Richest men— Kjell Inge Røkke is a phenomenal piece and I recommend you take the time to read it in its entirety (doubly so if you’re new to Bitcoin).
Røkke describes Seetees foundation, it’s initial investment of $58M into Bitcoin and his journey down the Bitcoin rabbit hole. He summarizes the broad mix of possibilities and challenges he sees in remarkably clear language.
NYDIG Keeps Killing It
NYDig went from unknown to me to one of my favorite companies in the space, thanks to their brilliant leader, Ross Stevens and his brilliant vision for Bitcoin.
They have been on fire recently, filing for an ETF, raising a round of $200m and snagging Ted Mathas as a board member:
I didn’t know who Mr. Mathas was either, but apparently —as Chairman and CEO of New York Life— his contacts and reputation in the insurance industry are unrivaled. Their “blessing” of a Bitcoin company could be a de-risking signal that opens huge doors for Bitcoin adoption. Read the whole thread below:
CRYPTO WARS
crypto- | ˈˌkrɪpˌtoʊ | concealed; secret.
The monopoly over fiat money will not be given up without a fight.
India Banning Bitcoin Again?
Once again, there’s talks that India will ban Bitcoin. Color me skeptical.
If they do, it will be a painful nuisance for Indian Bitcoiners who will surely see the local price go up and will have to resort to VPN services to access exchanges outside of India.
The ban is a moot cause as it is difficult to prove Bitcoin ownership and even harder to confiscate. If they do proceed with the ban it will be interesting for the rest of the world to watch how things evolve as the government tries to enforce it. I predict Bitcoin would come out stronger at the other end.
I will be watching with interest, but not holding my breath for this ban.
ETF Race Intensifies
Canada now boasts three different Bitcoin ETFs and they’ve been wildly successful. The race for the US market is heating up as more entrants file to have an ETF approved. Sentiment seems to be that one or more Bitcoin -related ETFs should be approved sometime this year:
The uncertainty of approval has led to inspired products that will offer exposure to companies that hold BTC or are somehow exposed to its price action:
JPMorgan is also entering the fray with a similar product.
SHORT FIAT
Recent news that makes me bearish on the legacy financial system —"short / bearish" means betting it will go down in value.
Accelerating Stimulus
Part of the problem with artificially stimulating a system is that the system may become habituated to said stimulus and start demanding it in order to continue to function
This pressure to print more despite the unpayable US debt (currently at a balmy 28 Trillion) should help grow awareness of the USD’s predicament and help drive Bitcoin adoption.
PRICE DISCOVERY
This is the section where I talk about price with an updated weekly price chart. If this is your first time here, there’s a “how to interpret” guide below the chart.
Bitcoin “jumped off the board again” when it comes back down it should find support at $55k and strong support at $47k.
With the stimulus checks coming, I recommend you stack hard and buy any dips before we rip higher.
Each candle in the chart represents 1 week.
As we see on the chart Bitcoin has been riding on air for a while. As long as price is between $27,000 and $85,000 anything can happen. Having said that, the support “board” is looking good around $47k, I’d be surprised if Bitcoin “fell off the board” at this point.
How to interpret the Bitcoin Surfing chart:
Think of Bitcoin's price-action as a kite-surfer:
Bitcoin uses its board to stay above water and wants to catch some air.
When it catches air, it tends to keep rising but if it rises too fast (it's feet no longer touch the board) it can stumble.
If it falls off the board, it tends to keep falling until it regains its footing (may need to touch water or sand for that).
Water and sand arrest the fall and help it push itself back up.
If it goes up so much that it gets close to (or into) the Stratosphere, it will probably crash down all the way into the sand and may need to tap the bedrock level before pushing up again.
SUBSCRIBE
DON’T TRUST, VERIFY
Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research)
I am not a financial, tax or legal advisor. All of my content is intended for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice
2021.08 - Irrelevant
Banks Keep Bending The Knee || Corporations Stack Different || Coinbase prepares for pricey IPO || Ignore NFTs || Fedwire Down || Big Dip/Small Dip?
TLDR:
Companies and leaders will keep finding it harder and harder to avoid Bitcoin as it becomes obvious that “staying out of it” increases their risk of becoming irrelevant.
THE STANCE
My personal opinion on where the ball might be heading.
This news would have been huge a year ago:
As the list of luminaries signaling support for Bitcoin keeps growing —and the names on that list are already impressive— the new names will land with less of a punch.
The thing to keep in mind is that as Bitcoin’s price rises it becomes MORE attractive to certain buyers. Some institutions can’t even look at it if the market cap is less than 1 Trillion.
This dip has been your opportunity to stack hard before the next big push up. Put in the work, build your conviction and stack now.
Despite going from under $6k to over $40k in less than a year, I still see lame criticisms like “Bitcoin is not scarce because it’s divisible”. Bitcoin is not for people who can’t do basic math.
What happens if Bitcoin keeps outperforming most funds and stocks? They’ll become irrelevant.
LONG BITCOIN
Recent news that keeps me bullish on Bitcoin —"long / bullish" means you have the expectation something will rise in value.
Banks Keep Bending The Knee
Slowly but surely, legacy financial institutions keep jockeying for position in terms of a Bitcoin strategy. And I’m not talking about just the young-and-scrappy fintechs
This week, JPMorgan (who has famously been critical in the past) seems to be slowly backpedaling out of its position. Now they are suggesting investors allocate 1% of their portfolios to Bitcoin:
Corporations Stack Different
Square doubled down on it’s initial $50M purchase of Bitcoin, this time buying $170M (about 5% of its cash)
Microstrategy quadrupled(?) down (losing count here) and raised a cool $1.026B (at zero % interest, no less) to stack additional Bitcoin. They added 19,452 BTC at an average price of $52,765 per coin.
They now hold 90,531 BTC with an average purchase price of $23,985
Coinbase Prepares for Pricey IPO
Eyes are on Coinbase as they prepare for their IPO. At it’s current valuation north of $100 billion, Coinbase is neck to neck with Goldman Sachs who not too long ago called Bitcoin, "not an asset class". It’s worth noting that toe companies valuation sat around $54B at the end of January
One was the interesting revelations that came from the filing was that only Coinbase holds $130M in Bitcoin. While that may seem like a lot to you and me, it was noted by sharp-penciled Bitcoiners on Twitter that this is equivalent to “less than $100 in daily revenue DCA since their inception.”
Given that Bitcoin was around $13 when Coinbase started and that they’ve generated around $3.4B during that time, it’s somewhat pathetic that they have such a small stack.
Still, their volume numbers were interesting:
Not everyone is excited though
Billionaire entrepreneur Chamath sounded a warning about the IPO though (which will be a direct listing). Mainly that Conbase’s valuation had risen too sharply in the last month which could lead to insiders dumping on retail.
CRYPTO WARS
crypto- |ˈkrip,tÔ | concealed; secret.
The monopoly over fiat money will not be given up without a fight.
Ignore NFTs
I’ve been seeing a lot of noise around NFTs (non-fungible-tokens) lately and I thought I’d chime in: Stay away from them. Or have fun with them, just don’t fall for the line that they’ll be a good investment.
SHORT FIAT
Recent news that makes me bearish on the legacy financial system —"short / bearish" means betting it will go down in value.
Fedwire Down
The Federal Reserve Payment system —which is used to settle around USD$3 Trillion per day— was down for several hours last week, leaving banks unable to send or receive wires.
How embarrassing. Especially in light of Janet Yellen’s recent criticisms of Bitcoin
Affected services included the Central Bank, FedACH, FedCash, FedLine Advantage, FedLine Command, FedLine Direct, FedLine Web, Fedwire Funds, Fedwire Securities and National Settlement.
PRICE DISCOVERY
This is the section where I talk about price with an updated weekly price chart. If this is your first time here, there’s a “how to interpret” guide below the chart.
Big Dip / Small Dip?
Last week we saw the “board” on our Bitcoin Surfing chart was at $44,183 this means we expected Bitcoin to find some support at that level that would allow it to regain its footing.
As it turns out, the week closed at $45,241 with a wick that reached a low of $43,021
As I said last week, any price between the board (currently at $42,670) and the beginning of the stratosphere (currently around $80k) is just Bitcoin doing its thing.
Each candle in the chart represents one week
I don’t know how long it will take Bitcoin to gather its strength before the next jump. But my read is, probably not long.
Bitcoin stopped short of $60k on the last push up. Then it took a breather, giving you a chance to buy cheaper. If you bought at the top, don’t despair. It happens to all of us. A little patience and you’ll be doing just fine.
How to interpret the Bitcoin Surfing chart:
Think of Bitcoin's price-action as a kite-surfer:
Bitcoin uses its board to stay above water and wants to catch some air.
When it catches air, it tends to keep rising but if it rises too fast (it's feet no longer touch the board) it can stumble.
If it falls off the board, it tends to keep falling until it regains its footing (may need to touch water or sand for that).
Water and sand arrest the fall and help it push itself back up.
If it goes up so much that it gets close to (or into) the Stratosphere, it will probably crash down all the way into the sand and may need to tap the bedrock level before pushing up again.
SUBSCRIBE
DON’T TRUST, VERIFY
Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research)
I am not a financial, tax or legal advisor. All of my content is intended for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice
2021.07 - Destroyed
Laser Eyes || One Trillion || The EFT Race || Microstrategy Does it Again || BlacrRock Dabbling || Tesla’s BTC Returns || Joe Laughs Last || Smashed $50k || All My Models Destroyed
TLDR:
Sure, Bitcoin breaking 1 Trillion in market cap was cool, but did you see the Laser Eyes?
THE STANCE
My personal opinion on where the ball might be heading.
This was one of the most fun weeks I can recall in my time in Bitcoin.
And yes, smashing through $50,000 and the one trillion market cap was obviously the underlying cause of the celebration. But the Laser Eyes stole the show.
The hard working memelords at Bitcoin Arsenal came up with and kicked-off the #LaserRayTil100k campaign
It spread like wildfire (the sampling below is very incomplete), you had authors, billionaires, corporate CEOs, economists, journalists, media personalities, taco-eating plebs, Bitcoin educators, fitness experts and at least two sitting US senators sporting Laser Eyes.
If you wanted Laser Eyes, you just had to ask. Someone made them for you, quickly and free, for lulz and glory. It was a joyous celebration for almost all Bitcoiners
Beyond the fut, Laser Eyes also underscored several important points:
The power of network effects —the speed at which this meme spread through the leaderless community was simply incredible
The penetration and reach of Bitcoin —the number and combined influence of the Laser Eyed is impressive
Bitcoiner Hive Strong —More than 700 profiles were changed to Laser Eyes. That’s a lot of work. And there was even quality control —senator Lummis’ first lasers were lackluster and they were soon spotted and replaced. For a community that disagrees on a lot of things and has no centralized leadership, they sure can get shit done fast.
LONG BITCOIN
Recent news that keeps me bullish on Bitcoin —"long / bullish" means you have the expectation something will rise in value.
One Trillion
On February 19, 2021 as Bitcoin’s price climbed above $53,000, its Market Cap —the hypothetical total market value of all Bitcoin— hit 1 Trillion dollars for the first time ever.
The ETF Race
Last week, I mentioned the first Bitcoin ETF in North America had launched in Canada. It seems it’s doing rather well:
The race for a US-based Bitcoin ETF has kicked into high gear:
An ETF will be a big deal because there are a number of institutions that simply can’t buy Bitcoin unless it’s wrapped inside a traditional investment vehicle —like an ETF. Currently most of that demand has been absorbed by Grayscale and Microstrategy, neither of which is an actual ETF.
Another One
Microstrategy just raise a second round of unsecured debt to buy Bitcoin. This time it was $1.05 Billion dollars at —wait for it— 0% interest. This will be studied in Business schools everywhere for decades to come.
“Dabbling”
With over 7 Trillion in AUM (Assets under Management) Blackrock’s definition of “dabbling” may be different to mine or yours.
Who’s Next?
As you know, Tesla invested $1.5 Billion in BTC on February 8th. It’s going well for them.
CRYPTO WARS
crypto- | ˈˌkrɪpˌtoʊ | concealed; secret.
The monopoly over fiat money will not be given up without a fight.
Last Laughs
Back in 2019, CNBC’s Joe Kernen became a Bitcoiner. He may not have plumbed the depths of the Bitcoin rabbit hole, but he understood enough to become a believer.
It was not an easy or comfortable position for him as a part of a mainstream news channel. But I remember how every time the subject came up, Joe would push back against detractors and us Bitcoiners would cheer him on.
At one point he made a bold prediction and was pretty much laughed at by his coworkers. The wait was long, but he was finally proven right.
Here’s to you Joe. I hope they apologize on-air and give you a round of applause. You called it.
PRICE DISCOVERY
This is the section where I talk about price with an updated weekly price chart. If this is your first time here, there’s a “how to interpret” guide below the chart.
Smash
Bitcoin smashed through $50k with decisiveness and is now gunning for $60k.
Normally, BTC “jumping off the board” like this would suggest a correction is due. I hate to say it, but I’m not sure these are normal times though.
Each candle represents 1 week. You’ll find an interpretation guide to this chart below.
All my models are destroyed
Bitcoin has had a fairly cyclical behavior in the past. This was beautifully codified by @planB in a March 2019 chart when he originally published his controversial “Stock-to-Flow” model, which modeled BTC’s price as a function of it’s relative scarcity (I won’t go into the details here).
The model has been widely criticized by many for different reasons. But the fit between the model and reality to date has been uncanny.
Economist and author of the popular and recommended book “The Bitcoin Standard”, Saifedean Ammous has been among of the defenders of the model based on the close fit it has demonstrated with price discovery for more than a year.
Saifedean recently sat down with Michael Saylor for an epic podcast and —among many other things— they discussed this model and the historical cyclical behavior of Bitcoin.
Only listen to it if you are prepared to have all your models destroyed.
DON’T TRUST, VERIFY
Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research)
I am not a financial, tax or legal advisor. All of my content is intended for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice
2021.09 - Parabolic
Parabolic Advances || Citibank: Bitcoin is at a Tipping Point || NYDIG Unchained || Paypal buys Curv || Iranian Bitcoin || Broken bonds || Hanging at $50k
TLDR:
I understand if you are nervous about investing in Bitcoin. It’s confusing, looks like a Ponzi (it’s not) and has already gone up almost 10x in the past 12 months. How much higher could it go? You’ve probably never experienced an asset going parabolic. Get in, buckle up and start studying.
THE STANCE
My personal opinion on where the ball might be heading.
Just got the question again:
What price should I be targeting for my first buy?
Here’s the answer: Just buy some at whatever the heck the price is at the moment. You’ll never like the price. I’ve had friends who have been “waiting for the right price” since $6k (I wish I was kidding). It’s always either “gone up too much”, “gone down too much” or “not really doing anything”.
The real issue is that You don’t have conviction in the asset yet. That’s entirely normal but here’s the thing: you can’t build much conviction from the outside looking in. You need to get in the game by buying enough to make it real for you. Enough to force yourself to pay attention to it. Enough to make it worth your while to put in the effort —and believe me, it will take effort— to understand what the hell Bitcoin is, how it works and why it behaves like it does.
So, how does Bitcoin behave?
In the past Bitcoin has had parabolic advances the year after each halving (the latest halving was last year):
There is of course, no guarantee that history will repeat itself. But the current macroeconomic conditions (money printer go brrrrr) seems to be driving an appetite —from individuals and institutions— for assets that the government can’t simply inflate.
Add to this a measurably historic outflow of coins from exchanges:
We can’t know what percentage of these coins are headed for cold-storage, but it’s reasonable to assume that a good portion of these are being taken out of the market for a while.
Growing demand + dwindling supply = price appreciation.
The specifics of when it will happen and by how much prices will increase are unknown, but the large-scale mechanics of the process are completely visible and suggest to me that we will be seeing more fireworks this year, maybe even soon if corporate earning reports bring some exciting news to the space.
Fair warning: the best way of looking at Bitcoin is as a long-term savings account. If you are looking to get rich quick it will likely lead to pain and losses, you have to build up your understanding and conviction in order to stomach the downs AND the ups.
So, how much should I buy?
This is a very common and important question. Once you decide you’re going in you need to determine a position size that makes sense for you. Invest too much and your nerves will be shot. Invest too little and you’ll have missed a unique opportunity.
After your first investment, you should keep use DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) as an accumulation strategy; you set aside a portion of your income to buy a fixed amount at regular intervals.
For your initial investment, I recommend simple strategy I call “Thank Me Later”. I’ll be emailing it to my subscribers this Wednesday. You can sign up here to get your free copy.
LONG BITCOIN
Recent news that keeps me bullish on Bitcoin —"long / bullish" means you have the expectation something will rise in value.
Tipping Point
Citibank is more bullish than you.
NYDIG Unchained
Two firms with excellent reputations in the Bitcoin space are joining forces, I look forward to seeing what comes of it.
Paypal Buys Curv
Paypal is deepening its inroads into the crypto-space via the acquisition of custodian Curv
While I don’t recommend using PayPal to buy Bitcoin (they don’t allow you to withdraw your coins to your own wallet) their size and influence is indisputable.
Their acquisition of Curv signals a commitment to the space which will help build confidence and drive adoption. I hope we will see PayPal continuing to bake Bitcoin into their payment rails.
CRYPTO WARS
crypto- | ˈˌkrɪpˌtoʊ | concealed; secret.
The monopoly over fiat money will not be given up without a fight.
Iranian Bitcoin
The government of Iran has been flirting with Bitcoin for months. There are reports that they own tens of thousands of miners which they power at least in part with their nuclear power energy sources while cracking down on private miners.
A recent report from a think-tank with government ties is encouraging Bitcoin mining as a source of revenue and potentially a way to avoid US sanctions:
Is this good?
That is the wrong question. The right question is: can anyone stop them? the answer to which —barring a war which leads to the actual destruction of the miners and power plants— is no.
Beyond judgements of good and bad, here the power of Bitcoin is laid bare.It is permisionless and uncensorable. Anyone who wants to participate can (earning it the title of “money for enemies”).
Those countries that understand this and take action before others will acquire an edge in a global race that —though many refuse to acknowledge it— has already started. Tick tock.
SHORT FIAT
Recent news that makes me bearish on the legacy financial system —"short / bearish" means betting it will go down in value.
Broken Bonds
I won’t pretend I understand the bond markets, but people who do are concerned:
I will be keeping an eye on this, if you’d like to understand what’s going on a little better I found the following resources useful:
This podcast with John Vallis and Greg Foss does a great job putting the situation in context:
PS. If you need a quick 101-primer on Bonds, The Fed, Money Printing, related Macro-stuff, this conversation between NLW and Kevin Kelly is a great place to get started:
PRICE DISCOVERY
This is the section where I talk about price with an updated weekly price chart. If this is your first time here, there’s a “how to interpret” guide below the chart.
Hanging around 50
After “jumping off the board” two weeks ago, Bitcoin came back down and seems to have “landed back on the board” nicely (found support around $45k) and seems on solid footing at $50k.
The longer we stay at $50k the more strength Bitcoin will gather to jump up again, perhaps managing to break past $60k next time.
With corporate reports coming out this week, I would not be surprised if we see some fireworks.
Each candle in the chart represents one week.
How to interpret the Bitcoin Surfing chart:
Think of Bitcoin's price-action as a kite-surfer:
Bitcoin uses its board to stay above water and wants to catch some air.
When it catches air, it tends to keep rising but if it rises too fast (it's feet no longer touch the board) it can stumble.
If it falls off the board, it tends to keep falling until it regains its footing (may need to touch water or sand for that).
Water and sand arrest the fall and help it push itself back up.
If it goes up so much that it gets close to (or into) the Stratosphere, it will probably crash down all the way into the sand and may need to tap the bedrock level before pushing up again.
SUBSCRIBE
DON’T TRUST, VERIFY
Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research)
I am not a financial, tax or legal advisor. All of my content is intended for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice
Tension
You weren’t early, are you late? || Bankers on the Brink || First Bitcoin ETF in North America || Miami Goes to Bitcoin || Hodling Corps Outperform || Canary in the Coalmine || Bill Miller’s Funds Eyeing Bitcoin || Taleb Ditches Bitcoin || Will India Ban Bitcoin || Elon’s Second Candle
TLDR
If you bought under $20k you were early.
If you buy under $50k you’ll be on time.
If you buy after $100k you’ll still be early to the long-term game but you’ll be late to this cycle.
Earlier is better.
The Stance
My personal opinion on where the ball might be heading.
So far, one of my motivations for writing this newsletter has been to give you the elements to understand why you start stacking sats (buying fractions of Bitcoin) RIGHT NOW.
The tone of this newsletter will probably shift soon. Not because I don’t believe you should keep stacking (you should) but rather because you will no longer be early to this cycle. Therefore there’ll be less of a hurry.
Looking back, I yelled BUY below $6K and no one took action.
After we broke $10k I decided to help newcomers for a living and became The Bitcoin Coach. A small handful took notice and started stacking around $10k (they say hi).
It’s funny but I didn’t get any new clients until after we broke $20k (they also say hi)
After we broke $40k some of the people I’d been yelling to since $10k reappeared. They are now interested.
Short-term thinking is a recipe for pain in most things.
It’s almost a guarantee for pain in Bitcoin.
I don’t think we’re near the top yet but if you want meaningful gains within the next 5-6 years you would do well to get off your ass and start stacking sats hard NOW.
I recently had a call with a friend who sold his stonks because of inflated valuations. I asked if he had allocated to Bitcoin and he replied “At $45K? It’s too expensive now”.
But you see, it’s not the price. I’ve been trying to get him into Bitcoin since $6k. He simply doesn’t believe in / trust Bitcoin.
This is the normal, default position by the way. If the first time you hear about Bitcoin your immediate response is to go “all in” you’ll probably lose money.
All serious Bitcoiners I know were skeptical of Bitcoin at first. They started small because they didn’t understand the asset well. They added to their position incrementally as understanding begat conviction.
ALL OF THEM wish they’d bought more at the beginning. This doesn’t mean “go all-in from the beginning”, it means take the time to learn about Bitcoin so you can justify your investment thesis.
Once you understand Bitcoin, your focus typically moves to working on accumulation strategies and securing your stash.
You don’t have to buy now. And if you don’t yet understand why you should invest in Bitcoin, take the time to give it some serious study and consideration.
If you already understand you should allocate to Bitcoin but are not suer how/how much then buy a little (enough to keep you interested), study hard and schedule a free call with me. Size your position so that losing that money stings but does not cripple you.
There is no rush though, you can always buy higher at a later date. Just don’t say I didn’t warn you.
LONG BITCOIN
Recent news that keeps me bullish on Bitcoin —"long / bullish" means you have the expectation something will rise in value.
Bankers on the Brink
A number of high-profile banks have been joining the fray in making Bitcoin-positive announcements:
First Bitcoin ETF in North America
Miami Goes to Bitcoin
Bitcoin-Hodling Corporations Outperform
Canary in the Coalmine
There’s plenty to disagree with in the article: Bitcoin’s Rise Reflects America’s Decline but they hit the nail in the head more than once, particularly here:
Bitcoin isn’t so much a bubble as “the last functioning fire alarm” warning us of some very big geopolitical changes ahead
It seems infantile (and inaccurate) to blame the USA’s economic woes on the Bad Orange Man as if the present economic stew hadn’t been brewing for over a decade..
Bill Miller Looking to Add Funds
It’s known that investor Bill Miller (of Legg Mason fame) is a Bitcoin Bull. Now, he wants to add it to his fund
CRYPTO WARS
Taleb Ditches Bitcoin
Nicholas Nassim Taleb, normally a well-respected figure in Bitcoin circles seems to have changed his mind about the asset.
His logic is weird though (is Bitcoin’s volatility news to him). It’s clear he has some beef with Bitcoin-Maximalist and hardcore carnivore Saifedean Ammous (author of the Bitcoin Standard, which I highly recommend).
This Week In Banning Bitcoin
There are rumors that Bitcoin may ban Bitcoin. Again. It tried and failed a couple of years ago. It seems Bitcoin’s price must have missed the news .
PRICE DISCOVERY
This is the section where I talk about price with an updated weekly price chart. If this is your first time here, there’s a “how to interpret” guide below the chart.
Elon’s Second Candle
Bitcoin Surfing
Bitcoin has been edging $50k for a while now, rumor has it that spiking above 50 could cause a lot of pain for leveraged short-sellers. we’ll see how long this lasts (prediction: probably not very).
How to interpret the Bitcoin Surfing chart:
Think of Bitcoin's price-action as a kite-surfer:
Bitcoin uses its board to stay above water and wants to catch some air.
When it catches air, it tends to keep rising but if it rises too fast (it's feet no longer touch the board) it can stumble.
If it falls off the board, it tends to keep falling until it regains its footing (may need to touch water or sand for that).
Water and sand arrest the fall and help it push itself back up.
If it goes up so much that it gets close to (or into) the Stratosphere, it will probably crash down all the way into the sand and may need to tap the bedrock level before pushing up again.
SUBSCRIBE
DON’T TRUST, VERIFY
Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research)
I am not a financial, tax or legal advisor. All of my content is intended for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice
2021.05 - Thank Me Later
The Great Migration || Best 1hr of Bitcoin || Tesla buys $1.5B || Hard to Confiscate || Visa to release Crypto API || DCA Gigachad Style || Guggenheim: Don’t Hate the Player || Ruffer Playing with House Money || Printer to Keep Going BRRR || Breaking Highs
TLDR:
BREAKING: BTC pumps on the wake of Tesla announcement (they bought $1.5B in BTC)
The great migration of corporations into Bitcoin has started. Right now you still have an advantage: you can move faster than them. So stop reading this, buy some BTC and thank me later.
The Stance
My personal opinion on where the ball might be heading.
The first wave of newcomers to this cycle bought under $20k. Ask me how they’re doing.
The second wave of newcomers bought under $40k. Maybe, if you hurry, you can still be among them.
On February 3rd Microstrategy graciously hosted a Bitcoin for Corporations event in which they walked through the different possibilities and hurdles corporations face when first developing their Bitcoin strategy.
Let me be clear on this: Corporations need a Bitcoin strategy, just like one day they realized they needed an online strategy, and then a social media strategy, and then a remote collaboration strategy.
Not all companies understand this yet of course. But the smart ones do. Over 8,000 people from more than 6,000 corporations attended Microstrategy’s event. And by the looks of it some of the attendees started putting in their personal purchases right away. After a well-deserved month-long breather, it seems BTC has gotten its strength back and has already tapped $40k again.
It will take corporations some time before they can reorient themselves into a position where they are able to start executing on a Bitcoin strategy.
This is one of those decisive moments for newcomers.
5 years from now, when Bitcoin has been comfortably sitting on six-digit pricing for a while (and if you don’t think this will happen, you probably haven’t been paying attention) will you be able to say you bought under $50k?
I hope you will, it’s a great feeling.
There was a lot of high-quality content at the Microstrategy event and I’ll be linking to it, but if you only do one thing, watch this hour-long conversation, thank me later:
Michael Saylor and Ross Stevens:
Bitcoin Macro Strategy
Long Bitcoin
Recent news that keeps me bullish on Bitcoin —"long / bullish" means you have the expectation something will rise in value.
Tesla buys $1.5B of Bitcoin
The long-expected announcement finally came.
Not your keys, not your coins
A man who recently served a 2 year prison sentence in Germany (for covertly mining Bitcoin on other people’s computers) has been released. With his arrest, the police claimed they had “seized 1,700 Bitcoin”, but it turns out the man never gave them the password to the coins. They remain unable to access them.
I don’t want to make any claims on this man’s moral standing. But his story highlights an important aspect of Bitcoin: it’s hard to confiscate.
This is one of many reasons why it’s an invaluable tool in the struggle to protect human rights. For a deeper look, check out this great video by Alex Gladstein:
Visa to release Bitcoin API
Bitcoin keeps making inroads into the traditional financial system. This week Visa, in partnership with Anchorage, announced an API that would allow traditional banks to buy, sell and hold Bitcoin and other digital assets through their apps.
The move is significant because it significantly reduces technical, infrastructure and regulatory headaches for banks.
DCA - Gigachad Style
Dollar Cost Averaging —buying at regular intervals regardless of price— has been a well-known strategy for investors across different asset classes and it has proven to be one of the smartest ways to accumulate Bitcoin.
Not content with their $1B+ Bitcoin holdings, Microstrategy seems to be DCA’ing $10M per month into Bitcoin. My respects for Michael Saylor and team.
Big BTC Energy
The relationship between Bitcoin and energy is one of the topics often misunderstood by newcomers / outsiders. You’ll often hear nonsense about all the “energy wasted to mine Bitcoin”. The good news is whenever you hear that the odds are good that the author doesn’t really understand the subject / is pushing an agenda.
I’m not well-informed enough to have built a definitive position on renewable energy, but I know enough to be skeptical of claims that it’s a magic key to a sustainable future. Both wind and solar energy consume significant amounts of fossil fuel in their manufacture, operation and/or disposal.
Crypto Wars
crypto- | ˈˌkrɪpˌtoʊ | concealed; secret.
The monopoly over fiat money will not be given up without a fight.
Don’t Hate the Player
You may not remember this, but less than 3 weeks ago —before they’d filled their bag one assumes— Scott Minerd had this to say about the price of Bitcoin:
“I think for the time being, we probably put in the top for bitcoin for the next year or so… and we’re likely to see a full retracement back toward the 20,000 level”
Fast Forward to Mr. Minerd last week:
I said it last week and I’ll say it again: Don’t trust the talking heads. They are working on their own self-interest, not yours. They will do their best to convince you to sell their Bitcoin to them. Don’t.
House Money
Ruffer made big news a few months ago when they announced a $600M allocation to Bitcoin. An old, conservative firm their entry into the space lowered the career-risk for corporation executives to consider a Bitcoin position.
This week, they announced that they’d decided to take profits to cover their costs, so they are now “playing with house money”.
I understand their decision and it’s in character with being a conservative firm. But given that their original allocation to BTC was comparatively small to the rest of their portfolio, I think they made a mistake by leaving a lot of upside on the table.
This serves to illustrate something we’ve said before:
They may be big corporations, that doesn’t mean they have strong hands.
BANNING Bitcoin - Nigeria Edition
Nigeria is now pushing some still-confusing legislation around making Bitcoin harder to use, banks potentially closing the accounts for people transacting in cryptocurrency.
Short Fiat
Recent news that makes me bearish on the legacy financial system —"short / bearish" means betting it will go down in value.
Printer To Keep Going BRRR
To be fair, they probably have no other choice at this point, but Democrats are doing their best to expedite a $1.9 Trillion relief proposal. This is horrible for people holding cash and good for people holding Bitcoin and other scarce assets.
Price Discovery
This is the section where I talk about price with an updated weekly price chart. If this is your first time here, there’s a “how to interpret” guide below the chart.
Breaking Highs
At $38,858 Bitcoin just had it’s highest weekly close ever.
You’ll notice in the char that the “water level” has risen to $20k+
This means that —unless something spectacular happens— it’s unlikely that BTC would drop below $20k at this point and looking t the sand and bedrock it will probably never fall under $9k again.
Breaking News
Tesla announced they had purchased $1.5B worth of Bitcoin. BTC pumped to over $44k on the news. Need I say it? It was inevitable.
Each candle in the chart represents one week. Click on the chart to expand.
How to interpret the Bitcoin Surfing chart:
Think of Bitcoin's price-action as a kite-surfer:
Bitcoin uses its board to stay above water and wants to catch some air.
When it catches air, it tends to keep rising but if it rises too fast (it's feet no longer touch the board) it can stumble.
If it falls off the board, it tends to keep falling until it regains its footing (may need to touch water or sand for that).
Water and sand arrest the fall and help it push itself back up.
If it goes up so much that it gets close to (or into) the Stratosphere, it will probably crash down all the way into the sand and may need to tap the bedrock level before pushing up again.
2021.04 - Inevitable
GameStop || Big Sharks Incoming || Ray Dalio on Bitcoin || Will India Ban Bitcoin Again? || Blockstream Ramps Up USA Mining || Banksters Hyperventilate || Pump & Dumps
The Stance
My personal opinion on where the ball might be headed.
TLDR: "In retrospect, it was inevitable". Elon Musk's tweet —now preserved for the ages in the Bitcoin blockchain— will only grow in relevance.
Last week was insane. Unless you were living in Mars you probably heard a lot about the GameStop / Robinhood saga I'll discuss it more at lenght in the Short Fiat section, but I just want to point out that while this may not be obvious on the surface, Bitcoin and the GameStop situation absolutely are connected:
“As advocates for retail investors rail against the current structure and practices of financial markets, it is important to note that much of the work being done in the blockchain space has been inspired by these barriers.”
—Paolo Ardoino, CTO Bitfinex
Speaking of Mars, this also happened:
The bio change that launched 1,000 tweets…
(now removed)
With a tweet and a change to his bio, Elon Musk —one of the richest men in the world— publicly signaled support for Bitcoin. The effect was swift:
Price rose more than $5,000 before settling back down amid heavy trading volume. It's no secret that big firms have been accumulating and will likely continue to do so. Big players coming into the space makes for this an exciting and frightening moment.
Let's be cristal clear, these are not "the good guys". The biggest sharks in the ocean are about to dive into our pool. There will be blood, make sure it's not yours.
These guys will do everything they can —and they have ample means to make shit happen— to accumulate heavily before the next big move up. Don't be surprised if we see a strong price drop and the FUD to go with it.
If your hands don't feel super-strong —or you don't know what the hell what "strong hands" are— schedule a free call with me ASAP.
The big sharks will try to manipulate you into selling, don't let them. If last week showed us anything it's that the collective power of small players with determination should not be underestimated.
The whole Gamestop saga has made plain what Bitcoiners have been saying all this time —the legacy system is rigged in favor of the most powerful. And while big traders, exchanges and whales can and will use every trick in the book to play with the price, they can't change the rules.
Each Candle in the chart represents 1 week. For a fuller explanation of how to interpret this chart see below:
Interpreting the Bitcoin Surfing Chart:
Think of Bitcoin's price-action as a kite-surfer:
Bitcoin uses its board to stay above water and wants to catch some air.
When it catches air, it tends to keep rising but if it rises too fast (it's feet no longer touch the board) it can stumble.
If it falls off the board, it tends to keep falling until it regains its footing (may need to touch water or sand for that).
Water and sand arrest the fall and help it push itself back up.
If it goes up so much that it gets close to (or into) the Stratosphere, it will probably crash down all the way into the sand and may need to tap the bedrock level before pushing up again.