Tension
TLDR
If you bought under $20k you were early.
If you buy under $50k you’ll be on time.
If you buy after $100k you’ll still be early to the long-term game but you’ll be late to this cycle.
Earlier is better.
The Stance
My personal opinion on where the ball might be heading.
So far, one of my motivations for writing this newsletter has been to give you the elements to understand why you start stacking sats (buying fractions of Bitcoin) RIGHT NOW.
The tone of this newsletter will probably shift soon. Not because I don’t believe you should keep stacking (you should) but rather because you will no longer be early to this cycle. Therefore there’ll be less of a hurry.
Looking back, I yelled BUY below $6K and no one took action.
After we broke $10k I decided to help newcomers for a living and became The Bitcoin Coach. A small handful took notice and started stacking around $10k (they say hi).
It’s funny but I didn’t get any new clients until after we broke $20k (they also say hi)
After we broke $40k some of the people I’d been yelling to since $10k reappeared. They are now interested.
Short-term thinking is a recipe for pain in most things.
It’s almost a guarantee for pain in Bitcoin.
I don’t think we’re near the top yet but if you want meaningful gains within the next 5-6 years you would do well to get off your ass and start stacking sats hard NOW.
I recently had a call with a friend who sold his stonks because of inflated valuations. I asked if he had allocated to Bitcoin and he replied “At $45K? It’s too expensive now”.
But you see, it’s not the price. I’ve been trying to get him into Bitcoin since $6k. He simply doesn’t believe in / trust Bitcoin.
This is the normal, default position by the way. If the first time you hear about Bitcoin your immediate response is to go “all in” you’ll probably lose money.
All serious Bitcoiners I know were skeptical of Bitcoin at first. They started small because they didn’t understand the asset well. They added to their position incrementally as understanding begat conviction.
ALL OF THEM wish they’d bought more at the beginning. This doesn’t mean “go all-in from the beginning”, it means take the time to learn about Bitcoin so you can justify your investment thesis.
Once you understand Bitcoin, your focus typically moves to working on accumulation strategies and securing your stash.
You don’t have to buy now. And if you don’t yet understand why you should invest in Bitcoin, take the time to give it some serious study and consideration.
If you already understand you should allocate to Bitcoin but are not suer how/how much then buy a little (enough to keep you interested), study hard and schedule a free call with me. Size your position so that losing that money stings but does not cripple you.
There is no rush though, you can always buy higher at a later date. Just don’t say I didn’t warn you.
LONG BITCOIN
Recent news that keeps me bullish on Bitcoin —"long / bullish" means you have the expectation something will rise in value.
Bankers on the Brink
A number of high-profile banks have been joining the fray in making Bitcoin-positive announcements:
First Bitcoin ETF in North America
Miami Goes to Bitcoin
Bitcoin-Hodling Corporations Outperform
Canary in the Coalmine
There’s plenty to disagree with in the article: Bitcoin’s Rise Reflects America’s Decline but they hit the nail in the head more than once, particularly here:
Bitcoin isn’t so much a bubble as “the last functioning fire alarm” warning us of some very big geopolitical changes ahead
It seems infantile (and inaccurate) to blame the USA’s economic woes on the Bad Orange Man as if the present economic stew hadn’t been brewing for over a decade..
Bill Miller Looking to Add Funds
It’s known that investor Bill Miller (of Legg Mason fame) is a Bitcoin Bull. Now, he wants to add it to his fund
CRYPTO WARS
Taleb Ditches Bitcoin
Nicholas Nassim Taleb, normally a well-respected figure in Bitcoin circles seems to have changed his mind about the asset.
His logic is weird though (is Bitcoin’s volatility news to him). It’s clear he has some beef with Bitcoin-Maximalist and hardcore carnivore Saifedean Ammous (author of the Bitcoin Standard, which I highly recommend).
This Week In Banning Bitcoin
There are rumors that Bitcoin may ban Bitcoin. Again. It tried and failed a couple of years ago. It seems Bitcoin’s price must have missed the news .
PRICE DISCOVERY
This is the section where I talk about price with an updated weekly price chart. If this is your first time here, there’s a “how to interpret” guide below the chart.
Elon’s Second Candle
Bitcoin Surfing
Bitcoin has been edging $50k for a while now, rumor has it that spiking above 50 could cause a lot of pain for leveraged short-sellers. we’ll see how long this lasts (prediction: probably not very).
How to interpret the Bitcoin Surfing chart:
Think of Bitcoin's price-action as a kite-surfer:
Bitcoin uses its board to stay above water and wants to catch some air.
When it catches air, it tends to keep rising but if it rises too fast (it's feet no longer touch the board) it can stumble.
If it falls off the board, it tends to keep falling until it regains its footing (may need to touch water or sand for that).
Water and sand arrest the fall and help it push itself back up.
If it goes up so much that it gets close to (or into) the Stratosphere, it will probably crash down all the way into the sand and may need to tap the bedrock level before pushing up again.
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I am not a financial, tax or legal advisor. All of my content is intended for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice
