2021.10 - Twice
TLDR:
Bitcoin’s Market Cap has now surpassed the Trillion Dollar mark, twice. It isn’t a fluke. It isn’t a bubble. It’s not done. If you are not onboard yet it’s not too late but hesitating now could prove expensive.
NO-COINER CORNER
IF YOU ALREADY OWN SOME BTC SKIP THIS,
IF STILL HAVEN’T BOUGHT, READ THIS:
Bitcoin is probably different from any investment you’ve ever made. Even worse, it’s different in ways you don’t yet understand.
A good portion of what Bitcoin is lives, in the space of “things that you don’t know you don’t know”. It’s natural to find it confusing and/or intimidating.
It’s NOT OK to let that stop you from making the effort to understand it. Don’t let your fear come between you and the chance to be part of the biggest monetary phenomenon of your lifetime.
Many of those who’ve let the opportunity slip through their fingers have come to regret it:
It may seem that you’ve already missed the boat. You haven’t. If you are looking for a quick buck, look elsewhere. If you are looking for an investment for the next decade read on.
Ask the questions, put in the work to understand the answers you receive. Don’t get distracted. Shitcoins will try to lure you with flashy marketing and promises of quick gains. FOCUS.
Do you know what the oracle problem is? how to yield-farm? the difference between POS and POW mining? what “Turing-complete” means and why Bitcoin doesn’t have this “feature”?
If you answered NO to any/all the above then there are only two reasons to invest in shitcoins:
You have too much Bitcoin.
You enjoy gambling and don’t mind losing as long as a good time is had by all.
Unit Bias
Lately I’ve been getting a lot of “I bought shitcoin X because Bitcoin was too expensive".
It’s a mistake we are primed to make because of Unit Bias —we naturally want to accumulate a whole unit because it seems optimal to our brain. It’s a psychological thing similar to how an item sells ten times more at $2.99 than it does at $3
Think in Sats: One Bitcoin is made of 100,000,000 sats. A single dollar still buys you over 1,500 sats. You can still be a Sat millionaire for around US$600 but maybe not for long.
THE STANCE
My personal opinion on where the ball might be heading.
Not every asset can break the Trillion Market Cap barrier. Fewer still can do it twice in the space of one month with a 25% tumble in between.
You can think of price dips as Bitcoin kicking the tires before a race. Are we all good to go here? Do we have support at this price levels? A strong, firm floor to jump from?
Last week there was a persistent rumor that Oracle was going to announce a large Bitcoin purchase. They didn’t. Price didn’t seem to care, we still broke $60k
Front-run the Stimmy
Now with the stimulus checks in transit, my bet is that more than a few of those checks will ape into BTC. After all, if you’d put the original $1,200 stimulus check into BTC you’d now have over $11k. Hard to ignore those numbers.
LONG BITCOIN
Recent news that keeps me bullish on Bitcoin —"long / bullish" means you have the expectation something will rise in value.
Norway’s Seetee
Norway’s 180-year old Aker Group —one of the largest corporations in the country, run by one of the wealthiest men in the country— created a new Bitcoin-centric company Seetee which will use Bitcoin as a Treasury Reserve Asset (their initial buy was $50M), has already partnered with some of the biggest names in the space (like Blockstream) and will be looking for multiple opportunities, including mining
Seetee will establish mining operations that transfer st or intermittent electricity without stable demand locally—wind, solar, hydro power— to economic assets that can be used anywhere.
A letter to Aker shareholders penned by Chairman —and one of Norway’s Richest men— Kjell Inge Røkke is a phenomenal piece and I recommend you take the time to read it in its entirety (doubly so if you’re new to Bitcoin).
Røkke describes Seetees foundation, it’s initial investment of $58M into Bitcoin and his journey down the Bitcoin rabbit hole. He summarizes the broad mix of possibilities and challenges he sees in remarkably clear language.
NYDIG Keeps Killing It
NYDig went from unknown to me to one of my favorite companies in the space, thanks to their brilliant leader, Ross Stevens and his brilliant vision for Bitcoin.
They have been on fire recently, filing for an ETF, raising a round of $200m and snagging Ted Mathas as a board member:
I didn’t know who Mr. Mathas was either, but apparently —as Chairman and CEO of New York Life— his contacts and reputation in the insurance industry are unrivaled. Their “blessing” of a Bitcoin company could be a de-risking signal that opens huge doors for Bitcoin adoption. Read the whole thread below:
CRYPTO WARS
crypto- | ˈˌkrɪpˌtoʊ | concealed; secret.
The monopoly over fiat money will not be given up without a fight.
India Banning Bitcoin Again?
Once again, there’s talks that India will ban Bitcoin. Color me skeptical.
If they do, it will be a painful nuisance for Indian Bitcoiners who will surely see the local price go up and will have to resort to VPN services to access exchanges outside of India.
The ban is a moot cause as it is difficult to prove Bitcoin ownership and even harder to confiscate. If they do proceed with the ban it will be interesting for the rest of the world to watch how things evolve as the government tries to enforce it. I predict Bitcoin would come out stronger at the other end.
I will be watching with interest, but not holding my breath for this ban.
ETF Race Intensifies
Canada now boasts three different Bitcoin ETFs and they’ve been wildly successful. The race for the US market is heating up as more entrants file to have an ETF approved. Sentiment seems to be that one or more Bitcoin -related ETFs should be approved sometime this year:
The uncertainty of approval has led to inspired products that will offer exposure to companies that hold BTC or are somehow exposed to its price action:
JPMorgan is also entering the fray with a similar product.
SHORT FIAT
Recent news that makes me bearish on the legacy financial system —"short / bearish" means betting it will go down in value.
Accelerating Stimulus
Part of the problem with artificially stimulating a system is that the system may become habituated to said stimulus and start demanding it in order to continue to function
This pressure to print more despite the unpayable US debt (currently at a balmy 28 Trillion) should help grow awareness of the USD’s predicament and help drive Bitcoin adoption.
PRICE DISCOVERY
This is the section where I talk about price with an updated weekly price chart. If this is your first time here, there’s a “how to interpret” guide below the chart.
Bitcoin “jumped off the board again” when it comes back down it should find support at $55k and strong support at $47k.
With the stimulus checks coming, I recommend you stack hard and buy any dips before we rip higher.
Each candle in the chart represents 1 week.
As we see on the chart Bitcoin has been riding on air for a while. As long as price is between $27,000 and $85,000 anything can happen. Having said that, the support “board” is looking good around $47k, I’d be surprised if Bitcoin “fell off the board” at this point.
How to interpret the Bitcoin Surfing chart:
Think of Bitcoin's price-action as a kite-surfer:
Bitcoin uses its board to stay above water and wants to catch some air.
When it catches air, it tends to keep rising but if it rises too fast (it's feet no longer touch the board) it can stumble.
If it falls off the board, it tends to keep falling until it regains its footing (may need to touch water or sand for that).
Water and sand arrest the fall and help it push itself back up.
If it goes up so much that it gets close to (or into) the Stratosphere, it will probably crash down all the way into the sand and may need to tap the bedrock level before pushing up again.
