2021.11 - Early
TLDR:
Yes, it’s still early. Early in the story of what Bitcoin will become. Most companies and high-net-worth individuals still don’t own any, that won’t remain the case for long. You can still front-run them and for once in your life beat them to the prize. DO IT.
THE STANCE
My personal opinion on where the ball might be heading.
The whole “institutions are coming” argument regarding Bitcoin was a pipe dream in 2017. The next few years —through the cold winter of a brutal bear market— saw Bitcoiners hunkering down and building the necessary infrastructure to support this dream, in the faith that it would materialize.
Still the notion remained fanciful hope until —pretty much out of the blue— Microstrategy announced they were switching their treasury to a Bitcoin standard. In the beginning, it didn’t seem like huge news. But Michael Saylor began a blistering evangelism tour that began to turn heads, culminating with the “Bitcoin for Corporations” event in early February which was attended by over 6,000 companies.
Today “institutions are coming” is no longer an opinion:
By the way, the Nic Carter podcast episode on the Institutionalization of Bitcoin from which the above Robby Gutmann quote was taken is excellent and recommended.
This is not the time to be “waiting for a dip” —which may or may not come. You should consider that this IS the dip and it’s not going to last forever. In fact, it will may not last much longer.
By the way, if you are new, Crypto can be confusing so I’ll give you a simple strategy:
Buy some Bitcoin and make a plan to keep buying regularly with the intention of holding it for as long as possible (at least 4 years).
Learn how to use a wallet so you can take custody of your own Bitcoin and move your coins from the exchange to your wallet.
Start learning about what you’ve gotten yourself into.
Ignore shitcoins (non-Bitcoin crypto).
Every week I talk to newcomers. They want to know about DeFi and NFTs, Shitcoin X, Shitcoin Y…
Look, I get it. You probably feel like you missed the boat. Like you may never be able to buy a whole Bitcoin and look! you could buy thousands of this other coin which is faster and has cheaper transactions than Bitcoin!
This a natural way to think when you have no real understanding about what Bitcoin is, how it works and why it was designed that way.
Suffice it to say institutions, corporations and billionaires are focused almost exclusively on Bitcoin for good reason. Find out what those reasons are.
You haven’t missed the boat. Get in, now.
And if you want help, my contact info is below.
LONG BITCOIN
Recent news that keeps me bullish on Bitcoin —"long / bullish" means you have the expectation something will rise in value.
Morgan Stanley
The players in the legacy financial system are reluctantly embracing the obvious. Their customers want Bitcoin, either they offer them access or watch them take their money elsewhere.
They seem slightly reluctant though. Only clients with $2M or more ($5M if you are an investment firm) will be able to access the Bitcoin instruments, and then they will only permit them to allocate a maximum of 2.5% of their portfolio.
Deeper Into CashApp
CashApp now allows users to easily send Bitcoin to each other, it’s good to see traditional payment rails baking Bitcoin into their services.
Bitcoin ETFs
Anthony Scaramucci’s Skybridge joins the list of US companies with Bitcoin ETF products waiting for government approval:
Based Brasil
The first South American Bitcoin ETF just received approval in Brasil:
CRYPTO WARS
crypto- | ˈˌkrɪpˌtoʊ | concealed; secret.
The monopoly over fiat money will not be given up without a fight.
The Charlie Lee
Back in 2017, the creator of Litecoin pulled the rug from under his users so hard, that the rug-pull was unofficially re-christened in his name:
The Rug Pull aka
The Charlie Lee
Lee’s behavior was bad enough that it’s part the argument the CFTC used to fine Coinbase (Lee was an employee) $6.5M
The reality is that this fine is a slap on the wrist for Coinbase and probably paves the way for Coinbase’s upcoming IPO.
SHORT FIAT
Recent news that makes me bearish on the legacy financial system —"short / bearish" means betting it will go down in value.
CBDCs
The endgame for Central Banks is control, of the absolute kind.
Listen to the clip describing what they want to replace cash with:
The Central Bank will have absolute control on the rules and regulations that will determine the use on that “expression of Central Bank liability” and the technology to enforce that”
This does not sound like the money of a free people, but rather like the tokens prisoners can use at their cafeteria.
Even George Orwell’s vision fell short of anticipating such a granular tool of control where the government has crystal clarity about where you spend every dime and the ability to financially castrate you at the click of a bureaucrat’s button.
If this doesn’t motivate you get into Bitcoin, I don’t know what will.
Eating Fiat’s Lunch
Bitcoin has been accelerating in its process of overtaking world currencies. Expect this to continue.
All Good Things…
The US dollar has enjoyed the “Exorbitant Privilege” of being the world’s reserve currency for a long time. How much longer will this privilege last?
Given the way the US economy is being managed, it seems it will only last as long as no other serious contender appears.
Turkish Displeasures
Raising rates is difficult for government officials to do because of it’s high political cost. Consider Turkey:
The charade can’t last forever. Rates at or near Zero (or even negative) a simply a sign that leadership is unwilling to risk its political capital to attempt to fix the economy.
Having secured chairs for themselves long ago, they’ll keep the music going as long as possible, hoping the carnage doesn't start on their watch.
PRICE DISCOVERY
This is the section where I talk about price with an updated weekly price chart. If this is your first time here, there’s a “how to interpret” guide below the chart.
Floating
Bitcoin has been flirting with $60k this week. It spent the week “floating above the board”, past behavior suggests it will either come back down and “touch the board” or keep floating at about the same level causing the board to rise to meet it.
I wouldn’t have the nerves of steel to be fishing for dips here, but if that were my sport I’d set my nets slightly above $51,100 close to the board.
And remember between $31k and $89k, anything can happen.
Each candle in the chart represent 1 week
How to interpret the Bitcoin Surfing chart:
Think of Bitcoin's price-action as a kite-surfer:
Bitcoin uses its board to stay above water and wants to catch some air.
When it catches air, it tends to keep rising but if it rises too fast (it's feet no longer touch the board) it can stumble.
If it falls off the board, it tends to keep falling until it regains its footing (may need to touch water or sand for that).
Water and sand arrest the fall and help it push itself back up.
If it goes up so much that it gets close to (or into) the Stratosphere, it will probably crash down all the way into the sand and may need to tap the bedrock level before pushing up again.
