2021.33 - Breach
TLDR:
Too Long Didn’t Read, aka The Summary
Boundaries are pre-human technology. They can be physical, chemical, conceptual, static or dynamic. Old boundaries are crumbling right now, the race to establish new perimeters is on.
THE STANCE
My personal opinion on where the ball might be heading.
Bitcoin is one of many technologies tearing at old boundaries. Biotechnology, AI, the Internet, Big Data, Robotics and Wireless are a few examples of other techs doing the same.
It’s beyond the scope of this newsletter to try and spell out how the inevitable intersections between the above technologies could be troublesome and dangerous but then again, it shouldn’t be that difficult to imagine that those intersections, which are being very actively explored, could significantly redraw the boundaries of the human experience for good and bad.
I chose to focus on Bitcoin because I believe money —the technology that allows for human cooperation at scale— is a foundational base-layer for civilization and healthy money provides better incentive structures than sick money.
The properties of “natural” (Gold-fueled) money led to it being co-opted by paper money —which started as a proxy for Gold. The properties of paper money let to it being co-opted by (Debt-fueled) fiat money. The properties of fiat money are already showing its limitations, first to those who knew where to look and increasingly to everyone except those making an effort not to see.
The eventual collapse of the fiat system has been called by some “mathematically inevitable”. You may (or not) agree with that statement but ultimately, the dilemma remains:
If the hull of your boat is breached and it becomes obvious it will sink before reaching its destination, you either had a Plan B or you did not.
LONG BITCOIN
Recent news that keeps me bullish on Bitcoin —"long / bullish" means you have the expectation something will rise in value.
Institutions Bitcoining
Are like a steady drumbeat than a panicked rush, we continue to see large institutions —some of which were vocally anti-Bitcoin less than 12 months ago— jostling for position within the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Some are old and have the patina of the venerable about them, others are young, scrappy and tech-savvy. All the same they keep coming.
Celebrities Bitcoining
Bitcoin also keeps growing among the hip, the elite and the famous. As a group the fabulous have been largely unable to resist the siren call of shitcoinery. The exceptions have been notable and celebrated.
Politicians Bitcoining
A more recent trend has been that of politicians realizing Bitcoin could be something their voters care about. Again, motivations here vary wildly in this realm, but overall it’s good to see Bitcoin start to carry some political weight.
For others Bitcoin seems to offer a life after politics. Hopefully this should feed back into the system favorably.
“Just because we’re decentralized that doesn’t have to mean that we’re disorganized”
—Michael Saylor
Evolution
Contrary to what you’ll read in “cryptotwitter”, Bitcoin has a flourishing ecosystem. It’s true that things don’t change as quickly as they do in other projects, but that is a feature not a bug.
You want a monetary system with solid foundations and steady steps, the “move fast and break things” attitude is fine for networks where you share pictures of your food, not for the network for storing global wealth.
Mining USA
In it’s thirst for control China lost a decisive advantage in Bitcoin mining and all that hash power is looking for home. Bitcoin mining in the US is growing by leaps and bounds.
China: Bitcoin is Property
It seems a Chinese court has determined that Bitcoin is property. This would be a positive development in light of the recent apparent hostility towards Bitcoin in China.
CRYPTO WARS
crypto- | ˈˌkrɪpˌtoʊ | concealed; secret.
The monopoly over fiat money will not be given up without a fight.
Global Hacked
One of Japan’s larger cryptocurrency exchanges —Liquid Global— was hacked. The damages are estimated at over $90 Million. If you don’t yet have Bitcoin under your own custody, you should book a call with me ASAP.
Cyber, Attacked?
Once again a WEF “prediction” seems to edge closer. They predicted a “cyber pandemic” (think Covid for the internet) and right on cue, the high-level attack warning lights started flashing.
This is one of those alerts that sounds very serious, yet provides zero real info on the alleged attack, which may have occurred two weeks ago:
“For security reasons, we are not in a position to discuss the nature or scope of any alleged cybersecurity incidents at this time." —Anonymous State Department spokesperson
Let’s call this one a test run on our nervous system, shall we?
SHORT FIAT
Recent news that makes me bearish on the legacy financial system —"short / bearish" means betting it will go down in value.
Metallic Manipulation
The manipulation of the Gold and Silver markets lost its crazy conspiracy status years ago when several traders from some of the most “reputable” houses were charged with manipulating the gold, silver, platinum and palladium markets over the course of eight years
Apparently JPMorgan itself is now off the hook after having paid $920 million and admitting they’d been naughty. I’m sure they’ve learned their lesson and will never do it again.
Only Bans
The polarizing platform OnlyFans —which rose to fame by allowing scores of thots “girls next door” to break into adult entertainment from the comfort of home— has been pressured by payment processors to crack down on pornography.
“Higher” Said Icarus
The stock market, auto debt, bond purchases by the Fed and the Fed’s balance sheet, all continue to rise to unprecedented levels.
Per Holger Zschaepitz, the global market cap is now equal to 139% of global GDP. Economic reality, common sense or math need not apply.
Road to Serfdom
Most people can’t imagine what would be SO bad about CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies), they’d be like crypto but backed by the Government! What’s not to love right?
PRICE DISCOVERY
This is the section where I talk about price with an updated weekly price chart. If this is your first time here, there’s a “how to interpret” guide below the chart.
Bitcoin Surfing
Bitcoin managed to put the entire body of its weekly candle above the water level (currently at $46k) putting it officially out in the air again, suggesting the $47-$120k range is now in play. Let’s catch some wind!
How to interpret the Bitcoin Surfing chart:
Think of Bitcoin's price-action as a kite-surfer:
Bitcoin uses its board to stay above water and wants to catch some air.
When it catches air, it tends to keep rising but if it rises too fast (it's feet no longer touch the board) it can stumble.
If it falls off the board, it tends to keep falling until it regains its footing (may need to touch water or sand for that).
Water and sand arrest the fall and help it push itself back up.
If it goes up so much that it gets close to (or into) the Stratosphere, it will probably crash down all the way into the sand and may need to tap the bedrock level before pushing up again.
Dip Fishing
I’d expect Bitcoin to spend the week hanging in the $50-55k area, but it could certainly dip back and spend more time retesting the $49 to $41k area.
I don’t think it will dip below $41k again. Do you?
The Calm Chart
All signs point to a green candle for August.
Now take two deep breaths as you drink in the chart below, you’re going to be just fine.
Strong hands are best built TOGETHER.
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All it takes is a few conversations.
Schedule a call to see if one of my plans is a good fit for you.
