2021.27 - Fake
TLDR:
The fight to control the narrative is kicking into overdrive, the battleground is your mind.
Educate yourself or be indoctrinated, your choice is likely to echo deep into the future.
THE STANCE
My personal opinion on where the ball might be heading.
As far as you are concerned, the ultimate arbiter between Fact and Fiction is your brain. You assemble your world view by selecting data that fits within your mental models.
Changing these models is usually difficult and uncomfortable. Most people would rather not.
When reality changes and your models get broken. You have the jarring experience of being shoved involuntarily into new sense-making.
New narratives must be found to make sense of the world. And lo and behold there’s a barrage of voices with ready-made narratives to “make things easier for you.”
Let’s our recent lockdowns as one example. I don’t know/care if you are for or against lockdowns, that is beside the point right now.
Are lockdowns effective?
Were lockdowns always part of the plan in case of a pandemic?
Have you actually researched either of these questions?
If it turned out the lockdowns were both a last-minute decision and known to be ineffective, would that be upsetting to you?
How hard would it be to swallow the quote below?
There are no historical observations or scientific studies that support the confinement by quarantine of groups of possibly infected people for extended periods in order to slow the spread of influenza. … — See original article
Ironically, this rant is not about lockdowns, but rather about sense-making. Your ability to make sense of the world is about to be severely tested.
As the monetary engine of the world struggles to keep up with reality a number of familiar things will probably break down and you will forced to choose between different ideas of what money should be.
There is already a campaign underway to steer you towards a money that is tightly controlled by governments, after all they know best. RIGHT?
For the first time you have the option of choosing a money that is not friendly to government manipulation. This is a threat to those who greatly benefit from having their fingers on the monetary levers of the world. They will not give up that control easily, you can rest assured they will fight to keep and increase the control they already have.
The battlefield will be your mind.
You would do well to take this opportunity and build an informed position on what it means for something to be “good money.”
What’s at stake is not just your financial prosperity but also your ability to choose how to lead your life.
This is likely to be a definitive battle for future generations as well, we stand at a crossroads which we may not visit ever again. You have the ability to choose freedom today. Your children may not get to make that choice tomorrow if you forfeit now.
If Bitcoin’s volatility scares you, just broaden your time horizon. This is the time to choose wisely.
LONG BITCOIN
Recent news that keeps me bullish on Bitcoin —"long / bullish" means you have the expectation something will rise in value.
Institutional Interest Holds
Despite the range-bound price action (price basically hovering around $35k) the real-world Bitcoin interest from institutions is alive and well.
Bitcoin Politics
By conviction or convenience, expect to see an uptick in politicians around the world leveraging their positions on Bitcoin (pro and con) as part of their platforms.
Rumors about Paraguay have been growing louder lately. We already know a Bitcoin bill will be presented this week so we are not sure what Mr. Rejala’s “surprise” will be but are looking forward to it. A second nation adopting Bitcoin as legal tender would be phenomenal news.
Bitcoinstar
Turn your spare change into sats. Love this idea.
Wyndham Rewards
Already a growing phenomenon in the credit card industry, “Bitcoin rewards” are likely to become a de facto standard across industries IMO. Wyndham is sounding the starting gun for the Hotel industry.
CRYPTO WARS
crypto- | ˈˌkrɪpˌtoʊ | concealed; secret.
The monopoly over fiat money will not be given up without a fight.
Deez Information
It should be fairly obvious by now that we are smack in the middle of the information wars. The attempts to steer the public narrative with flawed information is rampant in multiple domains.
With American Hodl leading the charge, Bitcoiners decided to have fun with this. They changed their avatars to bland institutional-ish names and logos and started reporting (mostly bullish) fake Bitcoin news.
And, Mission Accomplished, a few news outlets picked up the items and reported them as real news:
“Cyberpandemic”
WEF Director and Dr. Evil understudy Klaus Schwab has an uncanny record of causing predicting catastrophic events. The WEF’s COVID “simulation exercises” directly preceded the pandemic by a couple of months. It seems that may have just been the warm up act.
One widely expected outcome of these “cyber pandemics” and their resulting financial mayhem is that governments will try tops CBDCs and crack down on Bitcoin and other digital assets.
Arguably the most troubling part of the report, however, is its call to unite the national-security apparatus and the finance industry and then use that as a model to do the same with other sectors of the economy. —Whitney Webb, WEF Warns of Cyberattack Leading to Systemic Collapse of the Global Financial System
And. Like. Clockwork.
Absolute Control
If you are wondering what the endgame is around all of this nonsense is, you can find out in less than two minutes.
While not new, the following clip has been circulating a lot lately and it is relevant because governments would much rather have you using CBDCs than Bitcoin.
The key takeaway (lightly paraphrased):
“…We don’t know who is using a USD$100 bill today…
…a key difference with the CBDC is that the central bank will have absolute control on the rules and regulations that will determine the use of that [money] and also we will have the technology to enforce that.” —Agustin Carstens, Bank of International Settlements
So far, countries that have tried to ban Bitcoin have not been very successful. Expect future attempts to be more sophisticated than outright bans and expect fiat economists like Prof. Hanke to cheer them on
Incoming
There have been rumors of new “crypto regulation” coming to the US for several months now.
While no one seems to know exactly what will be proposed yet, I expect a lot of attention will be placed on Stablecoins, which the quote below seems to refer to
“…could fuel financial panics if users come to doubt the value of the underlying collateral. It will be practically impossible for Treasury and FSOC not to examine the financial stability risks of digital assets and how they can use their authorities to address those risks,” — David Portilla, Obama-era Treasury staffer
Hate the Game…
Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd lays bare the simple games big money plays to manipulate market sentiment:
Before Selling: Release ultra-bullish prediction to pump the market
While Accumulating: Release ultra-bearish prediction to depress price.
Supply “reasons” for each case. Rinse and repeat.
Sinple.
Exodus Update
As we’ve discussed in previous weeks, loads of miners are leaving China looking for more friendly jurisdictions, USA being a premier destination. Hash rate looks like its starting to recover, which suggests some of these miners are up and running again
SHORT FIAT
Recent news that makes me bearish on the legacy financial system —"short / bearish" means betting it will go down in value.
BTC > NYSE
The ex-president of the New York Stock Exchange (2014-2018) has signed on to lead a Peter Thiel-backed crypto-exchange
“Digital assets are here to stay. The smartest engineering talent is going into digital assets; digital assets are solving very important problems. Anybody who tells you they know exactly how it’s going to turn out is lying or delusional, but in general, you’re going to see more and more interesting use cases, more and more dollars go into the space,” — Tom Farley
Problems in Fiatlandia
One of the problems with debt-based money is that the debt cycle tends to spin out of control. And while interest rates can be an effective tool to manipulate the appetite for credit early in the cycle, they lose effectiveness in the later stages of the game.
It’s as if the Fed has infinite bullets, but the bullets grow softer and softer the more they use them.
If all of this is confusing to you, know you are not alone. The Fiat Machine is very complicated:
Something About Snitches
The FBI is encouraging you to spy on and report your neighbors and family. If only we had some precedents about this going horribly wrong…
Libertad
Large protests in Cuba saw citizens chanting “Libertad” (freedom). Interestingly, the New York Times labeled this as anti-government speech
But inflation can’t happen here, right?
PRICE DISCOVERY
This is the section where I talk about price with an updated weekly price chart. If this is your first time here, there’s a “how to interpret” guide below the chart.
Back on the Board?
Bitcoin has been treading water for a while, but it’s “board” finally came within arm’s reach ($35.5k). Will Bitcoin be able to get back on the board and prop itself higher?
To me it’s a question of when, not if.
How to interpret the Bitcoin Surfing chart:
Think of Bitcoin's price-action as a kite-surfer:
Bitcoin uses its board to stay above water and wants to catch some air.
When it catches air, it tends to keep rising but if it rises too fast (it's feet no longer touch the board) it can stumble.
If it falls off the board, it tends to keep falling until it regains its footing (may need to touch water or sand for that).
Water and sand arrest the fall and help it push itself back up.
If it goes up so much that it gets close to (or into) the Stratosphere, it will probably crash down all the way into the sand and may need to tap the bedrock level before pushing up again.
Still hanging around $35k Not much to report yet.
I know I’ve said this before but it’s worth repeating: This is a great price at which to buy.
Big Moves?
I’m not a trader, so I won’t try to offer color here. Just an FYI that people who do trade expect a bit movement soon (just not sure in which direction, as per usual)
The Calm Chart
Remember to relax, this dip will be a distant memory sooner than you think.
Strong hands are best built TOGETHER.
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