2021.29 - Obvious
TLDR:
There’s a lot that’s messed up in the world today. One obvious way to both protect yourself and help improve the situation is to upgrade your money by buying and holding Bitcoin.
THE STANCE
My personal opinion on where the ball might be heading.
It’s really a no-brainer.
We may just have hit this cycle’s bottom, but even if we go lower again for a moment, Bitcoin is a steal at these prices.
The Foss Flowchart
Greg Foss is an experienced Bond trader with a clear view on how the debt markets impact the broader market. You should hear him make his case in one of the many podcasts he’s appeared on, his perspective on the state and trajectory of government and corporate bonds is sobering.
The conclusion is simple: Bitcoin is a bargain right now.
It’s understandable to feel dissonance when pricing doesn’t seem to reflect your investment thesis, in a Podcast with Peter McCormack and Greg Foss, Dylan LeClair compares this moment to a scene from the movie “The Big Short” which should be mandatory viewing for all investors:
If you need a reminder of why “We’re right”, here it is on a billboard
LONG BITCOIN
Recent news that keeps me bullish on Bitcoin —"long / bullish" means you have the expectation something will rise in value.
The B Word
The long-awaited conference with a main-event featuring Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey and Kathie Wood got mixed reviews from Bitcoiners, there were definitely a few gems:
During the awkward (IMO) conversation between Musk, Dorsey and Wood, it was revealed that SpaceX, in addition to Tesla, holds Bitcoin as does Musk, who reiterated his support for Bitcoin (and Dogecoin).
For whatever it’s worth, Bitcoin’s price reacted very positively to the conference.
Begins with Bitcoin
There is a rumor that Amazon is going to incorporate Bitcoin into its payment options, after which —surprising no one— they’ll launch their own coin. And why wouldn’t they? They already have experienced running a good chunk of Ethereum’s nodes on AWS.
ETH
Bitcoin Twitter had a field day this week thanks to some masterful trolling (we assume by Jack Dorsey): Twitter assigned the Ethiopian flag to the #ETH hashtag.
And as it turns out, there are pro-Bitcoin members of government in Ethiopia, let’s hope they have the pull to make Bitcoin happen in their country.
Banking on Bitcoin
Meanwhile, US banks continue to incorporate Bitcoin…
Ramping Up
Between banks adopting it, companies incorporating it and a growing support infrastructure, Bitcoin is on its way to becoming a common site across the USA
Proof of Work
Love to see it, Gov. Greg Abbott wrapping his head around Bitcoin mining. We’ve all had to put in the time to understand Bitcoin, it’s great to see politicians rolling up their sleeves and doing the same.
CRYPTO WARS
crypto- | ˈˌkrɪpˌtoʊ | concealed; secret.
The monopoly over fiat money will not be given up without a fight.
F FATF
Under the guise of preventing money laundering, stricter KYC rules are being proposed by the Financial Action Task Force.
Not only have these type of measures demonstrably failed to prevent money laundering, they are also a proven risk to consumers whose sensitive data has been exposed time after time by the supposed gate-keepers.
Their goal seems to be to gain surveillance and control over the entire financial landscape. This is governments’ attempt to capture Bitcoin.
Take the time to learn how to safely custody your own assets in a non-custodial (self-hosted) wallet while you still can.
Non-KYC (peer-to-peer) Bitcoin transactions already trade at a premium, expect this to increase if these regulations pass.
KYC KFC
The Eye of Sauron hopes you enjoyed those nuggets, because they’re going to cost you way more than you paid for them.
The UK is launching a program where they’ll reward you for being a good dog citizen, of course you’ll have to allow them to surveil you at the “what are you eating?” level.
Do I really need to say this? This is a horrible idea.
Suing Coinbase
A shareholder is suing Coinbase for misleading statements. We’ll see if this goes anywhere.
Blockedfi
New Jersey has forced Blockfi to stop offering its citizens interest-bearing accounts. Seems they may be deemed a security.
SHORT FIAT
Recent news that makes me bearish on the legacy financial system —"short / bearish" means betting it will go down in value.
Accelerating
Inflation comes at you fast. Are you keeping up?
PRICE DISCOVERY
This is the section where I talk about price with an updated weekly price chart. If this is your first time here, there’s a “how to interpret” guide below the chart.
Dip Fishing
If you have been fishing for dips over the past three months you could have used this chart to place orders around $55k, $50k, $41.5k and $31k On July 20th my “NO” range was pierced briefly before price bounced back up sharply the next day.
Going forward I’m going to change the style of the chart from normal candles to HA candles (see below), which means candles will reflect an average rather than “raw” direct price.
Why the change? Because HA candles tends to produce groupings of red and green candles that make upward and downward trends easier to identify. Compare the charts below and see for yourself:
I’ve also added a couple of Moving Average lines, the 10-day MA is the Blue line and the 20-day MA is the red line. Using these averages can be useful for identifying entries and trend changes (I’m still debating whether I’ll keep them).
Bitcoin Surfing
We’ve been waiting for Bitcoin to get back on the board and hopefully ride it out of the water, which would mean rising and staying above $44.7k
How to interpret the Bitcoin Surfing chart:
Think of Bitcoin's price-action as a kite-surfer:
Bitcoin uses its board to stay above water and wants to catch some air.
When it catches air, it tends to keep rising but if it rises too fast (it's feet no longer touch the board) it can stumble.
If it falls off the board, it tends to keep falling until it regains its footing (may need to touch water or sand for that).
Water and sand arrest the fall and help it push itself back up.
If it goes up so much that it gets close to (or into) the Stratosphere, it will probably crash down all the way into the sand and may need to tap the bedrock level before pushing up again.
Ex-squeeze-it
Willy Woo was calling for a short squeeze and —spoiler alert—he got it. Price pumped nicely on Sunday evening liquidating shorts. We’ll see if the price keeps.
The Calm Chart
Remember to take two deep breaths and drink in this chart. We’re going to be fine
Strong hands are best built TOGETHER.
I work with families, groups and individuals, helping them develop the knowledge and confidence to invest in Bitcoin safely.
All it takes is a few conversations.
Schedule a call to see if one of my plans is a good fit for you.
