2021.35 - Encore
TLDR:
The 10 second summary:
Six weeks after hitting $30k Bitcoin is back above $50k Before you know it, we’ll see another parabolic advance. Are you in position for it? Or will you be waiting for the encore?
THE STANCE
My opinion on where the ball might be heading.
Bitcoin is back above $50k and sentiment across the board seems highly bullish. Normally this means degens place a ton of high-leverage long bids and whales force a dip to liquidate them.
But regardless of the short term fluctuations, it should be abundantly clear that we are heading much higher, probably not very long from now.
My perspective is that of a long-term hodler. I don’t concern myself too much with speculating whether “the big pump” will happen this week or the next. I simply know Bitcoin is massively undervalued and sooner or later the market will catch up to it.
Bitcoin returning to $50k after hitting $30k less than 6 weeks ago —with a backdrop of China and other countries throwing as much FUD as they could at it— merely suggests that the time draws near when Bitcoin does its thing and blows everything out of the water again.
If you haven’t started stacking, chances are you’re going to miss this one. I hope you pay attention and be better prepared for the next encore a few years from now.
LONG BITCOIN
Recent news that keeps me bullish on Bitcoin —"long / bullish" means you have the expectation something will rise in value.
September 7
Tomorrow, Sep 7th marks the date Bitcoin becomes legal tender in El Salvador and Bitcoiners are planning on celebrating by buying $30 at the same time on that date. Join us!
Trust in El Salvador
A new trust was approved in El Salvador to support the country’s (optional) adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender later this week.
The funds $150M were repurposed from a $500M loan by the Central American Bank for Economic Integration. Part of the funds will be used to roll out the new Chivo Wallet ATMs as well as incentivize and educate the citizens on using Chivo.
It seems the rollout is provoking some FOMO in a certain Mexican billionaire.
Ricardo Salinas whose group owns (among other things) a large chain of house appliance stores in Mexico called Elektra is apparently working on getting lightning payments up and running in his stores.
Dorsey’s Handwork
Jack Dorsey (CEO of Twitter and Square) has been living up to his word of helping push Bitcoin forward. His teams are working on integrating Bitcoin into Twitter and making it easier to turn fiat into Bitcoin without decentralized parties:
Twitter is Beta testing the ability to enable users to send each other sats via lightning:
TBD is a recent Bitcoin-focused initiative backed by Jack Dorsey that has been somewhat shrouded in mystery. It seems to have found its purpose though:
Moar Mining
The race to acquire ASICs (the specialized computers used to mine Bitcoin) continues unabated and hash-rate (the measure of how many miners are active) has made a strong recovery since the exodus from China a few months back.
CRYPTO WARS
crypto- | ˈˌkrɪpˌtoʊ | concealed; secret.
The monopoly over fiat money will not be given up without a fight.
All Together?
SEC’s Gary Gensler is trying to push for regulators around the world to harmonize around crypto regulation. I see his point, but good luck with that.
Revolving Doors
The incestuous relationship between financial regulators and Goldman Sachs large US financial institutions is well documented. In a predictable twist, the revolving doors are now pointed at crypto companies too.
However, these crypto jobs seem less sticky than their traditional counterparts.
It’s undeniable that Binance has been under scrutiny recently and not just in the USA.
BlockFi has not gone entirely unnoticed by regulators either.
That was quick:
A paranoid person would assume that a whiff of regulatory crackdowns is prompting these quick defections, but maybe the guys just didn’t feel comfortable in hoodies.
He He Heeyyy
If you have never seen Carlos Matos’ NY Bitconnect pitch you owe yourself 3 minutes to enjoy this scammer classic and round out your Bitcoin education.
The SEC announced action against Bitcoinnect and —well-deserved though it may be— it is surprising given that this scam has been dead for years now, whereas many others are still operating out in the open.
Speaking of scams…
And I’m not sure, do exploits count as scams?
Orange Man Not a Fan
President Trump is no fan of Bitcoin. I don’t think he’s researched it at any length but he understands enough to get one thing almost right: it threatens the dollar’s hegemony.
Bitcoin is not really a threat to the dollar specifically or even fiat —debt-based currency has self-destruction built into its DNA— but by providing an exit hatch, Bitcoin does threaten whatever solution the powers that be intend to propose once fiat’s cracks become impossible to ignore.
SHORT FIAT
Recent news that makes me bearish on the legacy financial system —"short / bearish" means betting it will go down in value.
If Only
Chairman Powell was quoted by the New York Times demonstrating (or faking) a complete lack of understanding about Bitcoin.
It’s always sad when top brass in any organization, let alone The Fed, leaves you wondering “are they that stupid, or is it that they think we’re that stupid?”
Applepay Banned?
No, not exactly, but South Korea does want to end Apple and Google’s stranglehold on the payment options on their platforms.
This is a great move by Korea, we’ll see if any other countries emulate it. Needless to say, this opens the chance for Bitcoin to sneak in there before either of the tech giants formally adopts it.
Goodbye Oz
In saddening news, it seems Australia’s rulers are bent on implementing a Chinese-flavored dictatorship on their citizens, complete the elimination of private access to the internet and social media scores, which they are now being actively contemplated.
If they implement this, a CBDC will surely follow, giving the government control of where, when and how fast citizens use their money.
If you are an Australian and don’t fancy a non-optional visit to the shiny new concentration camps isolation centers you’d better be stacking Bitcoin hard.
PRICE DISCOVERY
This is the section where I talk about price with an updated weekly price chart. If this is your first time here, there’s a “how to interpret” guide below the chart.
Guest Chart
An updated version of this chart, which I love, was just published and I thought I’d share some fresh hopium with you:
Bitcoin Surfing
Bitcoin managed to keep itself above water although it almost “dipped it’s toes” with a weekly low of $46.5k (water level currently just above $46k).
Bitcoin’s “surf board” is rising up fast (currently just under $46k) and will hopefully give it additional support once they touch again.
A lot of people are expecting big moves soon which is often a sign they won’t happen.
How to interpret the Bitcoin Surfing chart:
Think of Bitcoin's price-action as a kite-surfer:
Bitcoin uses its board to stay above water and wants to catch some air.
When it catches air, it tends to keep rising but if it rises too fast (it's feet no longer touch the board) it can stumble.
If it falls off the board, it tends to keep falling until it regains its footing (may need to touch water or sand for that).
Water and sand arrest the fall and help it push itself back up.
If it goes up so much that it gets close to (or into) the Stratosphere, it will probably crash down all the way into the sand and may need to tap the bedrock level before pushing up again.
Dip Fishing
Third time was a charm and we finally managed to break through $50k, we’ll see if it becomes a new support. Unless we see a very strong move up this week, I’d be surprised if we didn’t re-test $50k before attacking $55k.
Here’s some recent context about where Bitcoin seems to be in terms of price action.
The Calm Chart
August closed out as a modest but proud green candle.
Take two deep breaths as you drink in this chart and realize we’ll be heading higher not too long from now.
Strong hands are best built TOGETHER.
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