2021.18 - The Prestige
TLDR:
If “Crypto” is a magic trick, we’re getting ready for “The Prestige.”
Are you being misdirected by greed?
THE STANCE
My personal opinion on where the ball might be heading.
Act Three is coming
Every great magic trick consists of three parts or acts. The first part is called “The Pledge”. The magician shows you something ordinary: a deck of cards, a bird or a man. He shows you this object. Perhaps he asks you to inspect it to see if it is indeed real, unaltered, normal. But of course… it probably isn’t. The second act is called “The Turn”. The magician takes the ordinary something and makes it do something extraordinary. Now you’re looking for the secret… but you won’t find it, because of course you’re not really looking. You don’t really want to know. You want to be fooled. But you wouldn’t clap yet. Because making something disappear isn’t enough; you have to bring it back. That’s why every magic trick has a third act, the hardest part, the part we call “The Prestige”.
― Christopher Priest, The Prestige
Spoiler alert: I’m about to reveal how this movie ends.
The Pledge: You are shown a collection of ordinary shitcoins. they are worthless digital tokens that for years have failed to live up to their promise (if any).
The Turn: Scammers Savvy “crypto-investors” drive the price of these shitcoins up to THE MOON by pumping some money into them —the more worthless the coin, the more the price goes up because of their shallow markets. Everyone jumps excitedly into the shitcoin casino with both feet, dazzled by the astonishing wealth they are accumulating on-screen. Eye-popping returns for absolutely no reason, crypto is AMAZING!
I MEAN, LOOK AT THESE RETURNS!! (WHY AM I SCREAMING?):
The Prestige: The mercenaries savvy traders dump their shitcoins which crashes their price) taking your money and plowing it back back into Bitcoin.
Not only does this pump Bitcoin’s price and leave you holding a bag with heavy losses. To add insult to injury, it also makes you miss out on one of Bitcoin’s legendary moves, all because you invested in some dodgy coin “because it was going up a lot”:
What’s that?
It won’t happen to you because you’re going to sell on time and be part of the few who get to ride the alt-coin wave AND the Bitcoin wave?
You say you’re a well-connected, elite trader with daily insider-info?
Cool story bro.
You had the chance to buy the best asset in history at a rate of 1,700 sats for a single US dollar but decided to buy shitcoins instead. Well, maybe your grandkids will find the memes funny one day. Or, you know, not.
LONG BITCOIN
Recent news that keeps me bullish on Bitcoin —"long / bullish" means you have the expectation something will rise in value.
For Keeps
The boys at NYDIG are not playing around. They are aiming to become part of the backbone that will connect legacy finance to Bitcoin, which sounds lofty and nice. But they are executing fiercely.
NYDIG is positioning itself as a one-stop-shop where the Banks, Insurance Companies, Corporations and High Net Worth Individuals can go for all things Bitcoin, and they are killing it.
In fact this is so bullish, that this will be the only piece of news in this section this week. No shitcoin has a single company doing this caliber of work, So stop scrolling, go research what they are doing and listen to this interview with NYDIG’s CEO
CRYPTO WARS
crypto- | ˈˌkrɪpˌtoʊ | concealed; secret.
The monopoly over fiat money will not be given up without a fight.
Curiouser and Curioser
The government seems very curious about your crypto transactions
According to this report, the IRS has been authorized by a US court to seek the Identities of cryptocurrency users.
“Those who transact with cryptocurrency must meet their tax obligations like any other taxpayer”
Data released by Coinbase shows that the IRS is not the only government agency interested in your crypto:
In a controversial interview, Edward Snowden criticized Bitcoin’s lack of privacy (from min. 13:10 to 15:35)
His remarks are not wrong, but many felt it was an unfair characterization of the situation. There is no “easy privacy” switch, particularly at the base layer and while Taproot or Lightning won’t fix all of Bitcoin’s privacy problems immediately they are solid steps in the right direction.
SHORT FIAT
Recent news that makes me bearish on the legacy financial system —"short / bearish" means betting it will go down in value.
Missed the Barn
The jobs forecast was off. Significantly. Dramatically even. In fact they had never issued a forecast that missed by such a wide margin
This is not a good sign at all. The long overdue crash —the one that’s been kicked down the road for more than a decade— seems to be getting closer.
Russia shopping for money
Surprising no one, Russia would prefer to avoid US sanctions and have the ability to transact freely. They are in the market for money that allows them to do that.
Woe is Me
The Bank of England doesn’t like Bitcoin. Right back at you Guv.
Govcoin
The Economist sung the praises of the non-existent but potentially imminent Panopticoins. Electronic fiat that will give governments unimaginable surveillance and control capabilities over its citizens.
They say these new currencies are “to be treated with optimism and humility”. I disagree with their learned opinion. I strongly suggest treating them with a firmly upraised middle finger.
One of the many angles to study when learning about Bitcoin is the role that governments have played in the issuance and control of money (hint: it’s impossible for them to resist debasement) and the subsequent importance of having a money that is not controlled by government.
The implications are as enormous as they are hidden from sight, but in case you are new to the subject know this:
Your money is broken (regardless of what country you’re from)
It was broken by governments present and past
A broken money is poisonous not just to humans but to the entire planet.
The positive impact of returning to sound money is hard to imagine.
You are faced with the alternative right now of choosing Bitcoin or submitting to the governments’ surveillance-coin.
There is no return from either path, choose wisely.
PRICE DISCOVERY
This is the section where I talk about price with an updated weekly price chart. If this is your first time here, there’s a “how to interpret” guide below the chart.
Accumulation
While most of the world is distracted with shitcoins, the smart money is accumulating Sats at ridiculously low prices, taking care not to push the price above $60k (lest the masses wake up from their shitcoin trance).
How to interpret the Bitcoin Surfing chart:
Think of Bitcoin's price-action as a kite-surfer:
Bitcoin uses its board to stay above water and wants to catch some air.
When it catches air, it tends to keep rising but if it rises too fast (it's feet no longer touch the board) it can stumble.
If it falls off the board, it tends to keep falling until it regains its footing (may need to touch water or sand for that).
Water and sand arrest the fall and help it push itself back up.
If it goes up so much that it gets close to (or into) the Stratosphere, it will probably crash down all the way into the sand and may need to tap the bedrock level before pushing up again.
Bitcoin has spent a little more than nine weeks above the $50k mark.
The next big leg up is coming and all you have to do is nothing.
Never invest in something you don’t understand.
I help families, individuals and businesses develop an understanding of why and how to invest in Bitcoin. If you’d like to find out more schedule a free 30-minute call with me.
